By Bradley Yeh

This weekend, Shane Mosley takes on Fernando Vargas for the second time, and if there's one thing we can almost always depend upon with Fernando Vargas, it’s that element of barely escapable danger that he brings to all fights. His fight with Felix Trinidad was a thrill a minute, and it’s probably fair to say that if ever honour could be extracted from a TKO loss within top-level boxing, it occurred that night with Vargas as he literally fought his heart out to please his fans. We must not forget also that Mosley never says die either, so there will be no easy win this weekend for Fernando, that’s if it unfolds in favour of Ferocious Fernando. Mosley enjoyed the “sugar” moniker for a while, earning the name from his silky-fluid punch deliveries supported by seemingly effortless footwork that was practically time and distance perfect.

From 1997 to 2001 Sugar Shane Mosley delivered all his opponents with convincing defeats without putting in any overtime - that’s everyone down via TKO or KO, except for Golden Oscar. Mosley won that first fight with Oscar by a split decision. Not bad, particularly when you consider Mosley was fighting in divisions roughly 10 pounds lighter only 2 fights prior to the main event of his career (at that time) with Oscar. Sugar Shane practically spelt out “annihilation” for almost everyone he met in those days, and in return for entertaining us like that we called him “Sugar”. His first fight with the Golden boy was a dazzling display of superior speed, footwork and skill.

What was also so impressive about that fight was that, not in least was Mosley intimidated by the legend Oscar had made himself to be, or the weight disadvantage of moving up from lightweight. Being critical though, Mosley did however decide to that the light-welterweight division was an unsafe landing place as he rose from lightweight to welterweight, and with Kostya Tszyu ruling the division then, and with the way Tszyu was wrecking opponents appearing (on first inspection) to have superior skills - who can blame Sugar for not wanting to be put in hot water and stirred crazy by the Australian based Russian. This danger combined with the greater star and cash power of Oscar’s to that of Tszyu, brought Mosley up to welterweight.

To Mosley, Vernon Forrest was Tszyu’s Hatton, someone that wrote a blueprint for all to see on how to defeat you. Unlike Tszyu, Mosley didn’t suffer a KO to his blueprint’s author, but he did suffer the loss of the much famed “Sugar” moniker. That’s got to hurt, as that moniker can only come from boxing fans and experts alike, and it only remains with you if you continuously shine in the face of great competition. For these reasons it is priceless. Being called “Sugar” is worth a lot more than any pound for pound ranking in boxing - just take a look at who’s owned it. Aside from the great successes, like Mosley, Vargas has also experienced sufferings.

In 2000, Trinidad taught Vargas way too much about being publicly defeated than his ego and career were ready to handle. The way that defeat was dealt with allowed an insight into Fernando Vargas that was interesting and in such Fernando set a standard for himself that has probably caused more harm than good. Rather than properly assess and recover from Trinidad’s lesson, in an attempt to convince that the loss from Trinidad was less than it appeared, Vargas inferred to all who would listen that the Trinidad defeat would have no bearing on his career and no bearing on a fight with Oscar, a fight that Vargas assured us was his now right. Fernando also claimed the Golden one was avoiding him. It’s most uncommon for a fighter to call another top-level boxer out after a TKO loss, but Vargas went further and even claimed Oscar was not a true Mexican. The insults flowed and the demand for the fight grew.

Angelo Dundee once said, “never give a guy a reason to be more motivated than he already is”. Makes sense as, you never know what’s going to happen at top level contests in fights where actions always speak louder than pre-fight words. Wish granted: Vargas was in receipt of Oscar as an opponent in Vegas 2002 and after a shaky start De La Hoya blew Fernando out of the water in round 11. In that match Vargas presented with a strength advantage only and even that was tainted.

Oscar didn’t rematch Vargas and neither did Trinidad, and Vargas bitterly resented it because he was deprived of the ability to substantiate his forwarded reasoning behind the 2 most public and humiliating losses in his career. From his own logic a false Mexican (Oscar) beat a true one (Vargas). Bitter pill to swallow, that one. Publicly, Vargas appeared to not easily accept the defeat to Oscar for what it really was, which caused problems. Privately though, Vargas may have accepted some reality from it as a silent fear. In this way the public and private persona of Fernando Vargas the Aztec warrior became different and perhaps separated.

If the fights with Oscar and Felix had gone the distance then perhaps Vargas may have had the audience he wished for when he spoke of rematches. Instead Vargas’ distorted views about fight outcomes (if scenarios were different) and all the possible likelihoods (that didn’t actually happen) were thrust upon us. It was like a politician in denial that was still attempting to secure our next vote with a great promise in a year of election. It made the boxing public look at Vargas in a different way, as it sometimes appeared as if Fernando had believed he had not lost in the dramatic ways that he actually had. That’s always a concern in the fight game.

There's no real shame in losing so long as you accept it for what it was – right? What Vargas said before and after these fights made his need for a rematch greater. Perhaps he placed too much pressure on himself. Problem was most of the public, and also Trinidad and Oscar just didn’t think a TKO loss earned Vargas the right to a rematch. KO’s usually mean regroup and reprove, and be quiet until proven again. Vargas believes he didn’t get a rematch with Trinidad and Oscar because he was just too competitive on both counts prior to being TKO’d. He told us this much. He said he believes it! In effect then, Vargas is saying Trinidad and Oscar were scared of a rematch, even though they won against him convincingly. On what foundation is that logic? So we have Vargas dealing with losses in this way, constantly telling us that he is desperately without the rematches he desires.

Conversely we also have Mosley getting almost all the rematches he requests, after the losses that have had the most significant impact upon his career. Vargas must surely think that’s unfair? Put the hatred within Vargas’ that Mosley’s ability to get rematches creates, against Vargas’ love to create toxic relationships with opponents for motivation and you have a combustible combination that implodes inside the uncontrolled mind.

Vargas must really win this one otherwise the logic behind the missing rematch options due to the (alleged) fear in those that have already beaten him is looking in need of repair. Applying some Vargas’ logic here; Vargas with this rematch can punish Mosley for getting all the rematches that Vargas has not received by winning against Mosley 2nd time around and therefore proving that in rematches Vargas is always superior and would have been also with both Trinidad and Oscar. Right? I don’t think so. It’s probably a bit more involved and realistic that that.

Sure if Vargas beats Mosley this weekend, look out, as then there's no doubt we will all get to hear Vargas tell us that the Oscar loss was really due to a neighbour’s lawnmower that deprived him of much needed sleep the night before the fight and he’s only just discovered the openness to tell us about it. OK I play for the laugh.

Fighting for money is serious: Mosley and Vargas have both won and lost against top competition. Mosley’s losses show that he fights to the end and always thinks, regardless of when has been hurt. In short Mosley always presents as high tier competition and usually has a great sense of pace. Looking at Vargas’ losses there is a completely different story.

There’s no shame in losing to Oscar, Trinidad and Mosley, as Vargas has done, but the problems for Vargas are in the disparity between ego and self recognised ability, and this disparity manifests itself as being available for exploitation under the public pressure of prize fighting. It even manifests itself at pre-fight conferences with Fernando as its owner. So much of boxing is psychological and Vargas starts off with a disadvantage with his watered down Mayorga approach. Put simply Vargas places way too much pressure on himself to achieve what he may have been able to 3 years ago. And that’s a shame. He is so busy convincing himself that the reality of the situation can escape him. Talk about building a cage and locking yourself in as you try to set yourself free.

This is not the case with Mosley. Shane knows there are differences between what was expected and achieved from him in his own career and he has addressed these shortfalls as best as he can considering what he has been given. He knows the differences have meant that the prestigious “Sugar” moniker has fallen from his view, but he always has a rational approach that enables him to use all his skills and experience. He knows that if he dwells on what he has lost he will not win. Not so with Vargas as he is now defined by what he say and does in almost equal proportions.

Considering that boxing is very much a game of mind, in that wills are imposed across distance, and with aggressive force, what does this all mean for the upcoming fight between Vargas and Mosley, particularly this 2nd time around? This time, with Mosley, Vargas finally gets his first rematch, a rematch that he has advised us, that all his other successors have been afraid to comply with even though they knocked him out of the competition.

Is Fernando, by not receiving his wanted rematches with Trinidad and Oscar really a benefactor without knowing it, for the very reasons that Mosley record shows? As Mosley’s rematches with both Forrest and Wright have certainly brought him no comfort? Based on this and Vargas’ previous reactions and delusional comments to his own singular losses, has (rematch) chance (by way of omission) actually favoured him?

Surely we are not to believe that Vargas’ career would have handled a rematch loss to Trinidad or even Oscar in a better manner than his first losses to both were exhibited - well, not in the manner Mosley has handled his rematch losses anyway. Or are we to believe Vargas would not have lost the rematches - hmm – thinking white statue with chin on hand - pensive. Or is it simply as it appears in that no one beat Mosley convincingly enough for us to question his right to a rematch, as we may do with the Ferocious one? It can be said that Mosley walks from his losses with greater dignity and less baggage, and that’s got to free up the mind for strategy when things get tough in the later rounds and another plan or level of courage is called for.

It can also be said that rematches (and the lack thereof) have played a large part in the definition of both Shane and Vargas’ boxing careers. Fernando has been obsessed with them and they may have served him well in their absence. Shane, on the other hand, has been unsuccessful in utilising their chances to construct the intended redemption and (in hindsight) his career may have been better without them. It should be noted that on both occasions Mosley has re-matched he has delivered a better account of himself.

Vargas set extremely high standards for himself between 1998 and 2001, not just in his winning actions, but also when he conveyed his forecasts and after-casts pertaining to the, Campas, Thompson, Marquez, Wright, and, Quartey fights. At this stage of his career Vargas was on fire burning holes in the canvas.

The wins back then were easily good enough to stand on their own, but they were accompanied with self-fulfilling prophecies that have long memories and they don’t forget. The modern day Vargas simply knows he hasn’t lived up to his own publicity in terms of true upper echelon performance. And it is the exposure of just that kind of fighter, one that is puffed and less than what they claim, that Fernando Vargas prophesized to us that he was custom-made for as he convincingly swept through the pro ranks after his Olympic experience. Being your own agent of karma like that has got to hurt. It’s got to affect someone as vocal and proud as Vargas, and it does. It also affects performance. Considering that boxing is very much a game of mind, and that self-delusion can be a necessary evil, when is it positive motivation and when is it negative irrationality that offers no sporting performance enhancement?

Consider; Currently Vargas tells that in the first fight with Mosley his swollen eye was solely the result of a head-butt. Looking at what Vargas has said about his 1st fight with Mosley; it’s hard to believe that Mosley would have lost that fight, even if Vargas’ eye hadn’t swelled as it did. I believe it would have changed the scorecards a bit against Mosley but that’s all. The way fights are scored these days (right or wrong), they very rarely go against a guy as smooth as Shane was in that fight, even if it’s close, particularly when he has inflicted so much visible damage as was the case with Mosley on Vargas’ eye and face.

It’s almost irrational also to believe that Vargas would have KO Mosley, if the fight wasn’t stopped, and that’s considering that Vargas may be physically stronger. Let’s not also forget Mosley dug very deep with Forrest in their first fight, and, whilst his best years are behind him (as they are Vargas) Mosley has not lost that ability to dig deep – not with his calibre and pedigree – meaning there was more coming for Vargas to deal with even if the 1st fight wasn’t stopped. Oh did I mention, Mosley has also given Oscar 2 official defeats and 1 legitimate one, whereas Vargas, assisted, did not see the last round.

One can agree with Vargas in some terms though, as Mosley certainly was looking concerned at times in the latter rounds of their first fight, but hey so was Kostya Tszyu when he fought Jesse James Lieja and also Oktay Urkal, and we know what happened there. Broken ear-drum and broken jaw respectively. You're not always going to be presented with circumstances you like when boxing, and Vargas is not without skill, determination and a great record - so Mosley was concerned. Being concerned doesn’t equate to a loss. It can mean you're surprised and tired though.

It’s the manner in which Vargas has lost and what he says ensuing the losses, that makes his game plan under pressure available for exploitation by high class fighters - fighters like Oscar and Trinidad, and also fighters like Shane Mosley. An assessment of common opponents between Vargas and Mosley surely can only reinforce the notion.

A win for Mosley this weekend will allow him freedom from the curse he has been enslaved within whenever he has sought to reverse a loss through a rematch and show it was only chance. A win for Mosley will depend on Mosley’s sensible use of energy in the early rounds to facilitate the, movement, offence and defence that may be required in the latter rounds when Vargas feels the fight has limited Mosley’s potential and decides to walk him down. Without wasting too much steam, Mosley should use his sense of pace to keep the lead he earns in each of the earlier rounds by being clever and economical with his energy expenditures.

I see Mosley resisting the urge to demonstrate technical advantages after the lead is secured within each of the early rounds, so that a plan by Vargas to assert power in latter rounds is accommodated with a Mosley stamina reserve. Mosley’s style usually appeals to those that see boxing as the sweet science, so it’s not so easy to exercise that kind of restraint against your advantages when they're most dangerous because you're sweet and fresh - as Mosley will be early up. If Mosley does snap the lead up and if he moves just enough to keep it during each round, but in a way so he not running, then the latter rounds can truly be an exhibition of Mosley dominance, as Vargas’ game plan will very predictable at that stage. Vargas rarely fights on the run and Mosley knows Vargas’ feet need to be set for Vargas to fight with authority. There's a game plan all in its self. That Mosley can outbox Vargas in the early rounds if needed is probably without debate.

Mosley loves to show that he is superior with his, speed, angles and also the selection of combinations. It will require significant patience for Mosley to resist the execution of these skills at will in the early rounds when Vargas is most susceptible to Mosley’s advantages. Mosley winning by KO is a hard sell though, although a TKO could happen again particularly if Vargas finds himself in the latter rounds depleted of reserves and unable to create openings - which has happened several times before. Vargas loves to walk guys down and capitalise on forced and unforced errors with power shots. In some ways he is the opposite of Mosley, as he rarely throws combinations from distance where his commitment to power will leave openings.

Vargas creates openings from counter punching more than without. That’s a difficult way to score when you can’t match speed and you're not as agile as those with the speed advantage. Take the power away from Vargas though, and what have you got? If you're in with Mosley you haven’t got a lot then, because Mosley understands these dynamics very well and they play right into his speed advantage? Mosley can move and fight in flight, thereby further pronouncing Vargas’ need to be set in the feet in order to fight with authority.

An inconvenient truth; gone are the days when Vargas would deliver those beautiful patented uppercuts off of sneaky left jabs (Vargas V Quartey) that misled opponents into believing Vargas accidentally overstated his jabs causing errors and imbalance that presented partial height losses as Vargas appeared to lean forward in an act of uncalculated over-commitment - all to obscure the real intention – close the gap secretly, without announcement - come up underneath twisting with full power from the legs, and explode onto the jaw from an unseen angle. 

Another inconvenient truth: Mosley didn’t (initially) want this fight with Vargas. Had the promotional pressure of Golden Boy been as absent as Fernando Vargas’ rematch history the smart money has Shane moving down in weight where his power moves in the opposite (up) direction, to mach his skills.

Crystal ball: Mosley and father prevail over longstanding rematch curse. Fernando finds that sometimes it takes a nightmare (or a rematch) to wake you up. Be careful what you ask for, the Golden Boy may just grant it through the medium of Shane Mosley. 

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