Much has changed since Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (52-2-2, 39 KOs) and Gennady Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KOs) faced each other in 2017 and 2018 with more intangibles coming into play to make Canelo-Golovkin III as intriguing as their first two encounters. No longer is either of them the seemingly invincible and invulnerable fighters they were when they first collided in 2017. Both have had flaws in their respective games exposed by each other as well as other fighters they faced along the way.

As the adage goes, a fighter is only as good as he was in his last fight and both Canelo and Triple G looked far from indestructible in their most recent battles; the weaknesses of both men previously glimpsed in earlier bouts were amplified.

Canelo's last fight

In Canelo's case, he was soundly defeated by Dimitri Bivol. To be fair, Canelo was fighting at a division in which his 5-foot-8, former 154-pound frame clearly didn't belong. Granted, he brutally knocked out Sergei Kovalev in the eleventh hour at 175 pounds in 2019, but not before struggling against a fighter who was merely a shell of the formidable fighter he once was and was visibly fatigued at that point of the fight. Against Bivol, Canelo held his own and had his moments but he was soundly out-maneuvered by a bigger, stronger, longer man who simply refused to be bullied mentally or physically. But most revealingly, it was Bivol's stiff jab that was instrumental in keeping Canelo honest and setting up multi-punch combinations all night.

Canelo is a master at counter punching but the jab is the one punch which he is least proficient at retaliating against. He counter punches with a vengeance after dodging or even getting nailed by any punch other than the jab especially at close quarters but has fewer answers against the most basic weapon in boxing.

Although Canelo's susceptibility to the jab was most glaringly exposed by Bivol, the writing was on the wall and it was already noticeable from other fights as well, Kovalev, a borderline future hall-of-famer, was a severely deteriorated fighter by the time he faced Canelo in 2019 and the jab was the only weapon he had left. This was previously evidenced in his fight with Anthony Yarde and rematch against Eleider Alvarez. Gone were those concussive right crosses, left hooks and bone-breaking body punches that crumpled many a hapless opponent. Still, Kovalev's jab alone was enough to give Canelo fits all night before the violent stoppage in the eleventh round.

Despite lacking the size and reach advantage that Bivol had, Golovkin does have a laser-accurate and punishing jab that is often overlooked because it is overshadowed by the more picturesque and devastating weaponry he packs in his arsenal. Most importantly, it has already proven effective in his two previous encounters against Canelo, especially the first one. When Golovkin pumped his jab in doubles and triples, it forced Canelo to reset and reconfigure. Govalev's faux pas was abandoning his jab for long stretches, allowing Canelo to reestablish momentum and rhythm. Should Golovkin deploy the jab with more consistency and discipline in the rubber match, it might change the whole complexion of what transpired in the first two encounters. 

Golovkin's last fight

While Canelo was comprehensively outboxed in his loss to Bivol, he did not absorb a debilitating amount of punishment. Golovkin did. Ryota Murata relentlessly tore into Golovkin with both fists to rock and rattle the Kazakh powerhouse like never before. Golovkin ultimately proved he still had the goods, guts and gumption to win the war of attrition and stop Murata in the ninth round. 

But his body language looked terrible.

In his heyday, Golovkin's defense was never bulletproof but adequate enough to not get hit flush that often, When he did get nailed, his concrete chin ensured that it was of little to no consequence. But against Murata, he was a stationary target, there to be hit hard, often and cleanly. Most significantly, he seemed to wince in agony when Murata, not known for his body punching, punished his torso. It was an Achilles Heel previously exposed by Sergiy Deveryenchenko who was the first man to seriously hurt Golovkin with a left hook to the body. Rest assured, this recently-uncovered chink in Golovkin's armor has not gone unnoticed by Canelo and his team and will be incorporated into their palybook come Sept. 17, And we've all witnessed how destructive Canelo can be when he zeroes in on the liver.

The problem with using Golovkin's last fight as a mettle detector is that Murata was and remains an enigma in the sport. Despite winning Olympic gold in 2012, Murata proved limited enough in the pro ranks to drop decisions to two B-caliber fighters, Hassan N'Dam, N'Jkam and Rob Brant. But he also proved tenacious and adaptable enough to avenge both losses via stappage victories. Who did Golovkin struggle against but eventually beat - an unextraordinary underachiever or a tough-as-nails and talented samurai who fought the most inspired fight of his life in front of his hometown fans in Tokyo?

Backtracking to the subject of body punching, both fighters, Golovkin especially, were curiously conservative and sparing with shots to the torso in their two previous showdowns. They;ve both shown the power and propensity to deflate supremely-conditioned men with liver shots but uncharacteristically held back on each other's torsos. We now know that Golovkin doesn't react well to body shots and Canelo will undoubtedly try to capitalize on that. But thus far in his career, Canelo has never tasted his own medicine to the body. What happens if Golovkin decides to drill him down under? 

Weights and measures 

Unlike the first two fights, the third will be fought at 168, where Canelo reigns supreme as the unified champion. Having beaten four super middleweight titleholders to claim that distinction, there are no question marks regarding his ability to fight at that weight; he carries it well and packs the same fight-ending power he had at lower divisions.

As for Golovkin, he will be fighting eight pounds above the weight he has competed at for the entirety of his 16-year pro career spanning 44 fights. How will he carry the extra poundage? Will it diminish his speed? Enhance his already-formidable power? If he fortifies his abdomen with extra muscle, will it increase his punch resistance against body shots?

But however the added weight affects Golovkin, it will likely not have as much of an impact on his performance as his advancing age. With few and far-between exceptions (Bernard Hopkins, Archie Moore and maybe George Foreman), Father Time is undefeated in this and most other sports.

In the brutal, unforgiving world of boxing, each year is exponentially more deteriorating to a fighter's reflexes, speed and endurance once he hits his mid-30s. Golovkin is 40. This could spell trouble against Canelo's comparatively youthful 32.

Cinnamon-centric Judges

To say that judges have been charitable toward Canelo throughout his career might be an understatement. This was especially the case in his two previous bouts with Golovkin and also other recent and not-so-recent fights as well. 

In the Bivol fight, the three identical scores of 115-113 correctly favored the deserving winner but seemed generous toward the loser. Against Kovalev, Canelo was credited with rounds in which he threw precious few punches and landed even fewer while at the receiving end of Kovalev's jab. And zooming all the way back to 2013, the majority decision he dropped to Floyd Mayweather Jr. was a travesty in light of the fact Canelo was thoroughly dominated and might not have won a single round. 

Having been robbed of victory at least once against Canelo, Golovkin might feel compelled to take the decision out of the judges' hands and go for the knockout. But, as previously mentioned, Canelo is one of the best out there at returning fire so Golovkin will be opening himself up to lethal counters. Canelo has openly declared that he will be looking for a KO. Neither man has ever been down nor come close to being stopped but both have set the stage for this collision course to end inside the distance.

Read prediction for Alvarez-Golovkin III at: https://peterliminator.blogspot.com/2022/09/saul-canelo-alvarez-vs-gennady-golovkin.html