By Ronan Keenan

The 14th century historiographer Ibn Khaldun probably wasn’t thinking about boxing when he wrote his theories on the cyclical nature of history, but his philosophies certainly seem to hold true in today’s version of the fight game.

History unquestionably has a habit of repeating itself: two US Presidents named George Bush have both contentiously warred with Iraq; the two biggest stock market crashes ever – in 1929 and 1987 – occurred in the month of October; the two greatest military leaders, Alexander the Great and Napoleon Bonaparte, each died incongruous deaths far from a battlefield as a result of viruses. 

And boxing is not exempt from history’s strange phenomenon.

Numerous legendary fighters have eerily followed in the footsteps of their predecessors. Most notably, there’s the re-embodiment of Sonny Liston that is Mike Tyson. As arguably the two most fearsome heavyweight champions in history, both men became involved in the shadowy underbelly of society and naively whittled away their earnings to be left penniless long after their illusion of invincibility was infamously shattered.

When Larry Holmes was the dominant heavyweight in the 1980s, countless fans viewed him as an uncharismatic and lacklustre ‘filler’ champion. Nearly two decades later Lennox Lewis has proved to be his near doppelganger. The list of similarities is extensive. Both men possessed a formidable jab, remained virtually unchallenged for years, were never a hit with the media, and these days, with the benefit of hindsight, receive more adulation than ever before.

The skilful genius of the early-nineties, Pernell Whitaker, was another fighter who was never popular with the masses. He attracted viewers who hoped the ostensibly arrogant technician would somehow get his clock cleaned, which is a trend that’s beginning to occur with today’s pound-for-pound king. In the same manner as Whitaker, Floyd Mayweather has become public enemy number one as the mixture of outside the ring problems, superlative defensive skills, and an unappealing personality have turned the former Olympian into an underappreciated talent.

But are these uncanny similarities in careers mere coincidence or something more habitual?

“I don’t think it’s unusual at all for different fighters’ careers to resemble each other,” boxing historian Lee Groves told BoxingScene.

“One set of careers that mirror one another are those of Salvador Sanchez and Masao Ohba, both of whom were killed in auto accidents at age 23 three weeks after their final fights. Also, I’m sure that up-and-coming fighters attempt to emulate their heroes, so that might plant a seed as far as following their career paths.”

This weekend’s welterweight showdown between the contrasting figures of Shane Mosley and Luis Collazo throws up a contest that has the ingredients to emulate a classic 33-year-old battle.

The Ruben Olivares-Alexis Arguello war proved to be a quintessential passing of the torch. While it was the foundation of a legendary career for one fighter, it signalled the beginning of the end for the other. Saturday’s matchup could produce the same result and the parallels between the respective participants are more than conspicuous.

Going in to the 1974 featherweight face-off with Arguello, Olivares was on a relatively patchy run of form. The Mexican was possibly a little past his peak and was fighting at a weight that many insiders deemed unsuitable for his compact frame. Nonetheless, having established himself with two world bantamweight title runs, he was still considered a clear favorite over the relatively unknown Arguello.

“By the time he fought Arguello, Olivares was already past his best days,” said Groves.

“He was a terror at bantamweight as he was scoring knockout after knockout, but he was never as great at 126. Still, entering the fight Olivares had to have been a big favorite because of his vastly superior experience in big fights, while Arguello only had one bout of note.”

Likewise, the general consensus is that Mosley peaked about six years ago. He tore through the lightweight division, defending the world lightweight title eight times before climbing all the way to 154lbs – a move that many considered impractical as Mosley’s blistering speed became a thing of the past.

Even the welterweight version of Mosley, 43-4 (37), that enters the ring on February 10th could conceivably be a shadow of the 135 pounder that Larry Merchant once dubbed the new ‘Sugar’ Ray Robinson.

“The one big unknown is that Shane might walk up the steps to the ring against Collazo and get old overnight,” said T.K. Stewart of the Bangor Daily News and BoxingScene.

“He is now 35 years old, is closing in on 50 pro fights and has been fighting as a pro for 14 years. All of that could catch up with him at anytime.”

Much of ‘Sugar’ Shane’s stardom was lost when his flawless record was tattered against the awkward Vernon Forrest in 2002. Mosley just couldn’t find a way to beat the tall welterweight, losing two ugly decisions.

The first defeat was a significant upset, with Mosley recognised as an elite pound-for-pound fighter, while Forrest was regarded as solid but unremarkable. The scorecards were justifiably wide and the bout relatively uncompetitive as the smaller champion lacked the strength or power to make an impression on his lanky opponent. The rematch six months later turned out to be a closer affair, as Mosley seemed to know what to expect from Forrest, but he still didn’t do enough to regain his title, losing a narrower decision. 

Olivares’ indomitable reputation was also dented by one man. Having just punished the highly-regarded Jesus Pimentel, Olivares’ reign of terror came to a halt against the then-heralded Rafael Herrera in 1972. The Mexican lost his title when the one-sided bout was stopped in the eight round and, like Mosley, he got a chance to reclaim his lustre in a rematch later that year, but was unable to get the decision in what was a relatively more even fight.

After his experiences against Herrera, many observers believed the end was nigh for the popular Olivares, yet one year later he turned back the clock to put on a vintage display of ruthlessness with a ninth round stoppage against the highly-touted Bobby Chacon.

However, a fifth round knockout defeat by Art Hafey appeared to be another major setback, but that loss was soon avenged and a further momentous moment came when Olivares captured the vacant WBA featherweight title against Zensuke Utagawa.

Ultimately, entering the Inglewood Forum for his bout with Aguello, it was clear Olivares’ days as an indestructible brute were behind him. Still, he had recovered enough momentum since his numerous losses to indicate that a reign of terror at featherweight was possible.

Contrast that with Mosley’s post-Forrest form. As with Olivares’ pasting of Chacon, Mosley proved that the Forrest disasters weren’t his death-knell when he scored an upset decision victory over Oscar De La Hoya in 2003 to claim the world light-middleweight championship. But Mosley would encounter his own Art Hafey in the form of Ronald ‘Winky’ Wright.

The drubbing he received in their initial meeting left many observers wondering if Mosley had his brains scrambled when he demanded an immediate rematch. Even so, the Californian went on to redeem himself with a more inspiring performance to lose the second encounter by just a narrow majority decision.

His two 2006 victories over Fernando Vargas have restored much of Mosley’s sheen heading into the Collazo bout, much in the same way that Olivares’ claiming of the 126lb title salvaged his ‘big time’ status.

“[Against Vargas] Shane showed he still has the hand-speed to really turn things up when he wants to,” said Stewart. “The last fight with Vargas was one of his career-best performances in my opinion.”

Ominously, a lot of insiders were expecting Olivares to have a lengthy spell as featherweight champion, but that prospect was quickly dashed by the heavy hands of Arguello. So could it be that the parallels with Olivares will continue and Collazo will become Mosley’s Arguello?

Collazo, 27-2 (13), will enter the ring a heavy underdog, but then so too did the Nicaraguan.

“I would say Arguello’s victory was an upset,” said Groves. “Though Arguello was on a four-fight winning streak, his most important outing was a lopsided 15-round loss against Ernesto Marcel (whose vacated title Olivares won against Utagawa).

“He didn’t just lose against Marcel, he was beaten up, and his tall, thin body had to have been a tempting target for Olivares’ formidable hook to the liver.”

When the 21-year-old Arguello stepped into the ring with Marcel, not only was he fighting outside of his hometown Managua for the first time, but he had already suffered three conclusive career defeats against nondescript opposition and was now squaring off with a genuine world champion. In the end, Arguello was convincingly beaten, but he displayed an inherent toughness and did enough to warrant a shot at Olivares nine months later.

While Arguello wasn’t surrounded by much fanfare early in his career, it’s safe to say that neither was Collazo. The Brooklynite had much of the gloss wiped from his record when he was handed a third round stoppage loss in his fifteenth outing against one Edwin Cassiani. But Collazo didn’t let that setback dent his confidence and after a couple of wins over former world titlists he was ‘fed’ to the 2005 Fighter of the Year, Ricky Hatton.

      

While Marcel used the undistinguished Arguello as an ideal farewell fight, Collazo was meant to be a straightforward stepping stone into the welterweight division for the high-flying Hatton. Nevertheless, Collazo wasn’t interested in losing and gave the unbeaten ‘Hitman’ hell in losing a debatable decision.

After surviving a competitive war with such an elite opponent, Collazo proved that a fighter doesn’t need a marquee name to hang with the best. Furthermore, he probably learned more from that one fight with Hatton than his 27 previous bouts combined.

“Collazo is peaking as a fighter,” said boxing scribe Don Stewart of the Reading Eagle. “His confidence is in another stratosphere after his performance against Hatton.

“Collazo didn't get many breaks coming up, so I think he has a little chip on his shoulder for the boxing establishment, especially after the Hatton decision. That can be a powerful thing.”

While Arguello didn’t have to wait long for a second chance at the big time, neither has Collazo. And, just as ‘El Flaco Explosivo’ was unfavored heading into his career-defining moment with Olivares, so too will Collazo when he meets Mosley at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas.

“Collazo is a lot better than most people think he is - he's young and he's a tricky southpaw,” said T.K. Stewart. “But this will be Collazo's first fight in Las Vegas since his stoppage loss in 2002.

“Collazo is a long way from home and fighting on a big stage against a high level fighter.  This is bigger than the Hatton fight.  For Mosley, Las Vegas might as well be his hometown.  I think Shane will show better handspeed than Collazo and throw more punches to win a relatively close decision.”

But wasn’t Inglewood supposed to be Olivares’ second home?

Even as that featherweight bout progressed it seemed like all the pre-fight talk was perfectly prophetic. Every advantage the 82 fight veteran Olivares was expected to have he utilised to maximum effect, while the ostensibly ordinary Arguello wasn’t proving anybody wrong.

Mosley too seems to have every edge over Collazo.

“Shane knows how to fight southpaws,” Stewart said. “He learned after having fought all of those rounds against Winky Wright.

“Mosley has seen every style and there is nothing that Collazo does that Shane hasn’t seen before.”

That’s exactly the sentiment that prevailed during Olivares-Arguello.

“Arguello's victory was a surprise and the proof could be seen in the fight itself as the shorter Olivares ‘out-boxed’ Arguello throughout the fight,” explained Groves.

“He wasn't even using his best assets and was still winning the fight, so that had to be an indicator of their skills at that point in time.”

But with less than seven minutes to go, Arguello unleashed a thunderbolt of a hook that shocked both Olivares and the boxing world. As a new star began his ascension into the pugilistic heavens, another one soon fizzled out and ended a glittering career with little more than a twinkle.

Even if fate determines that Mosley loses in a similar manner to Olivares, he’ll be hoping he can follow in the footsteps of Olivares to the Hall of Fame.

“Like Olivares, Mosley would be a certain Hall of Famer,” asserted Groves. “He made eight defenses of his lightweight belt and was one of the few 135 pounders to immediately jump to 147 and win a belt there.

“The losses against Forrest and Wright shouldn’t work too much against him because they were both men that other elite fighters were unwilling to tackle. He is a fighter with excellent overall skills that should be honored when the time comes.”

Even so, Mosley’s entry into the Hall will be years away, and there is every likelihood that he will continue to fight regardless of Saturday’s outcome. And if his future form lies in tandem with Olivares’ final performances, the journey to Canastota will be anything but smooth.

 “I don't think Olivares was the same fighter after Arguello,” continued Groves. “But then again, I already thought he was past his prime when he moved up to featherweight.

“He still had firepower and knowledge, but he was going up against younger, naturally bigger men who could take advantage of his vulnerable chin.”

Mosley will be hoping that the in-ring similarities between himself and the post-Arguello version of Olivares will be minimal, but as Ibn Khaldun said, when the cyclical history phenomenon takes hold of a victim it refuses to release.

Based on what Mosley had to say recently, Khaldun may be proved right.

“I’m going to keep fighting for at least another five years,” Mosley said with authority. “I look at Bernard Hopkins and say to myself, ‘if he can fight at his age then so can I’. I see myself fighting until I’m 41.”

And Olivares was how old when he retired?

Ronan Keenan can be contacted at: ronankeenan@yahoo.com