Chapter ten is here.

This week, boxing celebrated the fiftieth anniversary of the first Joe Frazier-Muhammad Ali fight. It is in the running for greatest heavyweight fight of all time and the era is often argued as the peak in heavyweight history. 

It can always be appreciated from a distance. Only those alive to bear witness will ever truly know what it was like to ‘be there,’ experiencing it live, watching it unfold without knowing what comes next.  

In boxing, there are always excellent fights and fighters but there are clusters of time in each of boxing’s seventeen active divisions that stand out from the rest. They don’t have to be  better than another era in another division to be special. It’s enough to know it will be one of the standards against which the future warriors that come through its ranks will be measured. The Ali era is a measuring stick at heavyweight. Forty years later, the welterweight field led by Sugar Ray Leonard is too. 

True golden ages in any weight class don’t come along often. To be able to recognize that we’re living through one of those times, right now, is something any boxing lover can embrace. 

This Saturday (DAZN, 8 PM EST), we get the latest clash in an era that will inevitably be a measuring stick against the first forty years of Jr. bantamweight, or super flyweight, history and everything that will follow. Since Rafael Orono was crowned the inaugural WBC titlist in 1980, the division has had some healthy periods. Hall of Famers Khaosai Galaxy and Johnny Tapia got serious business done. A veritable round robin in the 2000s culminated with Vic Darchinyan unifying three major titles.

What we’re living through now has arguably already surpassed what came before and it’s not over yet.

A rematch desired for eight years by hardcore fans is here after many assumed the expiration date had passed. It comes with a richer tale behind it than it could have had at any time before.

When Juan Francisco Estrada and Roman Gonzalez and stole the show on the undercard of the excellent Brian Viloria versus Tyson Marquez flyweight unification in 2012, they couldn’t have known what they were starting. Gonzalez already had some wondering if he was the best little man they’d seen since the 90s runs of Ricardo Lopez, Michael Carbajal, Humberto Gonzalez, and Mark Johnson among others.

They were still just wondering. 

The now 30-year old Estrada (41-3, 28 KO) was largely unknown on the world stage. Few following the lightest weights saw him coming that November night. That probably includes the now-33 year old Gonzalez (50-2, 41 KO) who retained his Jr. flyweight crown in the toughest fight of his career to then. 

No one, not even the combatants who gave a Fight of the Year effort in a year where Juan Manuel Marquez-Manny Pacquiao IV smoked everything with one for the ages, could know what would follow over the next near decade. Gonzalez won the WBC and lineal flyweight crown from Akira Yaegashi, became the second man to win belts from strawweight to Jr. bantamweight, and returned to belted status (WBA) last year after a devastating knockout loss to set up Saturday’s unification showdown. Estrada won Viloria’s unified crown at flyweight in his next fight after Gonzalez, had a healthy reign, and stands today as the WBC and lineal king at Jr. bantamweight. 

Along the way, two critical co-stars entered the picture to enrich the era. As was the case for Gonzalez-Estrada I, no one could have known when Carlos Cuadras defeated Srisaket Sor Rungvisai for the WBC super flyweight belt in 2014 how it would play into a larger tapestry. 

It takes time for an era to develop and reveal itself.

Develop it did. 

Beginning with Gonzalez winning his fourth divisional title from Cuadras in 2016, the four of them have provided fans an additional seven fights. Most of them were outstanding and a few were outright classics, including Estrada’s rematch knockout of Cuadras last October.

And yet, all along, the first chapter remained the one to be resumed. Gonzalez and Estrada meeting just once was never enough and they’ve yet to meet at 115 lbs. Timing, injuries, losses, and, yes, cash affected traction along the way but the question was always there. What about each other was never far from a post-fight interview.

On Saturday, what about each other feeds into what happens if in consideration of the possibilities for what might unfold and follow from here.

What happens if…

Estrada Wins Close?

A narrow win for Estrada, particularly in a fight that meets expectations, will leave the question of what about each other still relevant. A debatable decision would ensure it. This isn’t the first rematch that took years to materialize but it doesn’t arrive too late to matter like a Bernard Hopkins-Roy Jones II. Both guys can still go and there is still time for them to make for a trilogy. No one loves a tie. Estrada-Gonzalez III probably wouldn’t be next but it would remain tangible for both men. It would be less the case if…

Estrada Wins Big?

Whether by wide decision or stoppage, a demonstrative victory for Estrada would quiet immediate questions about a third fight with Gonzalez. It likely can’t happen immediately no matter who wins this weekend. The WBC mandatory for the winner will be Sor Rungvisai. Estrada has split two decisions with the Thai puncher and their rivalry demands resolution. 

Any win over Gonzalez would give Estrada the distinction of being the only man in the four-way rivalry to have a win over everyone else in the series. Coming into this weekend, despite his losses to Sor Rungvisai via debated decision and knockout, Gonzalez is still viewed by many as the best of the era near his weights. A Gonzalez win this weekend, especially an emphatic one, would set the stage for Estrada-Sor Rungvisai III and a chance for “El Gallo” to rewrite the postscript on just who stood as the head of the class. 

All of that is contingent on Estrada winning. One of the things to anticipate about this weekend is knowing both men have real chances to see victory. So what happens if…

Gonzalez Wins?

If Gonzalez wins, close or decisively, it adds a layer to a career already locked in for Hall of Fame induction and, barring a controversial points nod, quells calls for a third fight. 

Controversy is a factor in a different third showdown.

One can still find ample debate about who won the first Sor Rungvisai-Gonzalez fight. Few who witnessed the finality of the immediate rematch would have guessed Gonzalez would ever again show the form he did last year against Kal Yafai. His resurrection, in winning the WBA belt, was one of those later career gems special fighters can pull off. It was made even more admirable when one considers the knee injury and surgery that kept him out of the ring for a long stretch. Gonzalez hadn’t looked that good in the two fights before Yafai and didn’t look quite as good again his last outing against fringe contender Israel Gonzalez.

A win over Estrada would give additional weight to Gonzalez’s second act, marking it as genuine and not lightning in a bottle. It would also set the stage for his own third fight with Sor Rungvisai if he opted to keep both belts after Saturday. Gonzalez attempting to finally slay the only dragon he hasn’t yet would be high drama. Sor Rungvisai has a fight of his own to win (Friday, DAZN, 9:30 EST) to protect his mandatory status. What happens if…

Sor Rungvisai Loses to Kwanthai Sithmorseng?

It seems like a longshot for Sor Rungvisai to lose this week to Sithmorseng (50-7-1, 27 KO) but the 34-year old Sor Rungvisai (49-5-1, 42 KO) hasn’t quite looked the same since his win in the first Estrada fight. Stranger things have happened. A shock loss would open the door for Estrada-Gonzalez III to go ahead sooner if Estrada wins this week. It would also open the possibility for the cast to reload with 38-year old veteran four-division titlist Donnie Nietes (42-1-5, 23 KO) expected to resume his career next month and 31-year old WBO titlist Kazuto Ioka (26-2, 15 KO) red hot off a knockout win over Kosei Tanaka. Nietes and Ioka would be fresh matches with Gonzalez or Estrada as would the forgotten man in the class, 29-year old IBF titlist Jerwin Ancajas (32-1-2, 22 KO). 

It’s enough to say chapter ten isn’t neccesarily the last to be written. Any of those other names could be factors by the end of the year no matter what happens in Estrada-Gonzalez II or Sor Rungvisai-Sithmorseng. There’s one other name it’s impossible to ignore. What happens if…

Naoya Inoue Comes Calling?

Three pounds north of the action at 115, 27-year old Naoya Inoue (20-0, 17 KO) has assumed the top of the bantamweight division. The unified titlist’s activity has been limited to one appearance since winning the World Boxing Super Series in 2019 and there remain hopes he can complete unification of his class. Inoue would be a heavy favorite versus the winner of Estrada-Gonzalez II...but is there a bigger money fight in that area of the scale? Inoue’s career unfolded almost in parallel to the rest of his potential rivals from Jr. flyweight through Jr. bantamweight. 

If Gonzalez defeated Estrada, could he be tempted toward a chance to win a title in a fifth weight class rather than pursue revenge with Sor Rungvisai? Could Estrada opt to try to leave a footprint that could elevate him into even higher historical conversations? It would depend on what the checks added up to but it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility.

Saturday Ends in a Draw?

While no one wants to see a big fight end even, it happens and this is the sort of contest where there could be difficult rounds to score. A draw is possible and it might be a net plus for the division. A draw, especially one without controversy, would leave Estrada to fulfill his mandatory against Sor Rungvisai and leave Gonzalez with a more open calendar. After Gonzalez, Nietes and Ioka became the third and fourth fighters to win titles in all four of boxing’s lightest divisions. Nietes has already defeated Ioka; Gonzalez against both would be two more bouts to make this golden era whole.

The possibilities are almost as tantalizing as an opening bell now only days away. No one has  to ask what happens if Estrada and Gonzalez square off again anymore.

It’s time to look forward to what happens when. 

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com.