By Dave Sholler

If you are a glass-half-full type of person, you’ll definitely see the first six months of 2009 as a blessing.

We’ve got mega-fights like Antonio Margarito vs. Shane Mosley.

We’ve got comeback fights like Kelly Pavlik vs. Marco Antonio Rubio and Miguel Cotto vs. Michael Jennings.

And of course, we’ve got proposed bouts that make you curious like Winky Wright vs. Paul Williams.

But beneath the obvious abundance of fights early into the New Year lies a common theme. Many of these participants are teetering on a fine line of failure meets flourish. Taken one step further, many of these boxers are in “backs against the wall,” scenarios, where a loss is just as devastating as owing money on tax day.

Today, we’ll take a look at some of these boxers and identify just how badly they need to earn a victory. We’ll also clue you in on how they might pull off a win. As you read on, ask yourself what happens if they can’t muster up the energy needed to produce a win. Ask, are they worthy of another big bout or is it back to the drawing board?

SHANE MOSLEY (4-1, 3 KOs in his last five fights)

After struggling to stop Ricardo Mayorga in his last bout in September, Mosley somehow was deemed worthy of a shot at welterweight boss Antonio Margarito. At 37 years old, “Sugar’s” window of opportunity is clearly closing. With that said, a successful performance in his Jan. 24 bout against the WBA champion is absolutely vital.

WHAT’S HIS STRATEGY? For starters, Mosley has linked up with Bernard Hopkins’ trainer Nazim Richardson (he fired his previous trainer/father Jack Mosley) in hopes of rejuvenating his career. Under Richardson’s guidance, Mosley must understand the need to be in supreme shape come fight night. Margarito is absolutely relentless and continually marches forward. Mosley will need to be prepared to stick and move all night long if he is to contend.

CAN HE DO IT? No. Mosley was once a terrific boxer, but he doesn’t have the same stamina anymore. He will keep it competitive thanks to having quick feet, but in the end, he’ll likely run out of room to dance. Margarito does an excellent job of cutting off the ring and he’ll trap Mosley much like he did to Miguel Cotto last July.

KELLY PAVLIK (4-1, 3 KOs in his last five fights)

Some have said that Pavlik’s pure boxing ability was exposed in his October loss to Bernard Hopkins. We’d rather say that he was effectively grounded. The 26-year-old proved against Hopkins that he has no business fighting above middleweight at this time. His power and pressure fighting is too hard for other 160-pounders to adapt to and better yet, shields his technical ineptitudes.

With that said, Pavlik will look to return to form on Feb. 21 when he defends his middleweight titles against Marco Antonio Rubio. While some think it will be a walk in the park for Pavlik, we think Rubio and his nine-fight winning streak will be a tougher challenge than expected.

WHAT’S HIS STRATEGY? He may feel the need to show that he can box after the Hopkins fight, but Pavlik needs to stick to what earned him the middleweight crown. The Youngstown, OH native should use his stinging jab to set up the monstrous right hand that has spelled doom for past foes. It’s a recipe that has worked 34 times in the past for Pavlik. There’s no doubt that he needs to display better footwork, but we think Rubio will be willing to stand and trade in the pocket.

CAN HE DO IT? Pavlik will struggle with Rubio early, but we think he earns a decision victory. A stoppage is possible, but the Mexican challenger has not been stopped in four years. Either way, Pavlik will get back on the right track with a win and set up a potential bout with Arthur Abraham.

MIGUEL COTTO (4-1, 3 KOs in his last five fights)

Cotto took a beating in July from Margarito and had his undefeated streak abruptly halted. After outboxing Margarito in the early rounds, Cotto was battered as his opponent’s relentless nature became too difficult to defend. As he prepares to take on Michael Jennings of Great Britain for the vacant WBO title on Feb. 21, some are wondering if Cotto has psychologically recovered from his last defeat.

WHAT’S HIS STRATEGY? Facing a relative unknown, Cotto should erase all Margarito memories and stick to what has worked in the past. Displaying good power in both hands and a knack for effective technical work, the Puerto Rican needs to plan on boxing Jennings ears off.

CAN HE DO IT? If Cotto boxes his style, this one will be over early. Don’t think for a minute that Cotto hasn’t been stewing since the loss. He wants a win and he wants one definitively.

WINKY WRIGHT (3-1-1, 0 KOs in his last five fights)

We’ll believe it when the contract is signed by both parties, but Wright is tentatively scheduled to face welterweight/super welterweight/middleweight Paul Williams in April. Inactive since losing to Hopkins in July 2007, Wright desperately needs to win a big fight to maintain any hopes of winning another world title. In a battle of lanky southpaws, Williams should be a stern test for Wright.

WHAT’S HIS STRATEGY? Has Winky’s strategy ever changed? A slick lefthander, Wright will look to counterpunch Williams all while using his infamous “turtle” defense. Should he do any tape study, he’ll notice that Williams is occasionally susceptible to looping overhand punches.

In the end, Wright is an intelligent fighter and this bout is an intriguing battle of two competent tacticians.

CAN HE DO IT? Thanks to severe rust, we don’t think so. Williams’ size is always a factor, but we think he’ll pressure Wright so much that he is unable to mount any offense. This bout will not be boring like some have hypothesized, but it will end in a clear-cut decision for “The Punisher.”

ANTONIO TARVER (3-2, 1 KO in his last five fights)

Thanks to a contractual mandate, Tarver was granted a rematch with Chad Dawson on March 14. Having been blown away by Dawson in their first bout in October, we wonder if the 40-year-old will suffer the same fate in two months. Once considered the best light heavyweight in the sport, Tarver has looked average over much of the past three years. He’ll need to beat Dawson if he has any shot at earning future title bouts.

WHAT’S HIS STRATEGY? Somehow, Tarver has to figure out how to slow down the much younger Dawson. In their first bout, the Floridian could not match the pace of the division’s young gun. Tarver’s best bet? He needs to hope he can land a stiff straight left hand and rock Dawson.

CAN HE DO IT? Nope. The light heavyweight division now belongs to Chad Dawson. The only rematch “Bad” Chad should be fighting is the one he owes to Glen Johnson.