By John Hively

An alleged injury forced David Haye to back out of the fight against Wladimir Klitschko a few months ago. The injury was a good thing for Haye, as he was likely going to be knocked out in a one-sided fight. Then Haye and his team demanded the right to duke it out with Vitali. After David spouted off, his team wisely altered their minds and decided not to get knocked out in another mismatch. Instead, they chose to fight Nikolay Valuev, the Russian Goliath.

On paper, Valuev appears to be a formidable mountain for Haye to climb. He has size and more size, along with experience, and not much more. Those factors have allowed him to sneak by John Ruiz twice, Jameel McCline and a few others. Nikolay does have skills, otherwise he would not be a top ten heavyweight. The Russian’s most impressive weapon is his jab, which is long and can wear other fighters down; but it is not the best jab in the division.

Despite his size, Nikolay has only decent punching power. He is slow on his feet and his hand speed is minimal.

In summation, Haye and his team have chosen an opponent they think David can defeat. In my opinion, David can stop Valuev the Goliath.

The Brit need not worry about getting blasted into the twilight zone by his ponderous and relatively light hitting opponent. And his speed will allow him to move in and out and all around the big Russian, so long as Valuev is ineffective with the jab. It is not unreasonable to suggest that Haye can fight inside the Russian’s reach all day using his speed of hand and foot. And this suggests Haye and his two walloping fists might be able to stop the big guy, but only if he can get past the jab.

So what if Haye can keep the pace up for only a few rounds because he is allegedly stamina challenged. If so, he will need to pace himself, but if he can hit Goliath, he can hurt him and slow him down, like Ruslan did when he beat the big guy. In other words, Haye can overcome any stamina deficiency by hitting the Russian now and then. 

Of course, there are still lots of questions about Haye. If fading trial horse Monte Barrett can drop him, then you can be sure Valuev will be able to, as well. The Brit’s only other heavyweight joust was a one round blowout of Tomasz Bonin, a pugilist with a good record against mediocre opposition.

This fight is Haye’s real debut at top-flight heavyweight. Let there be no mistake. Valuev is a quality fighter, but hardly great, and his size is what makes him formidable: Haye’s speed will negate that. All of which means we will be able to see what Haye can do as a real heavyweight.

In order for Valuev to win he will need to land the jab a lot. He’ll need to keep it in David’s face all night. Then he can wear the Brit down, take home a decision, or perhaps even a stoppage win, if we assume Haye has no chin or stamina. And even if Haye does possess those assets, Valuev will still triumph if he can pop Haye in the face with that jab 150+ times. But if an ancient Evander Holyfield can avoid the jab for a good portion of his battle with Valuev, then how is Nicolay going to land the weapon against someone much fleeter of hand and foot? I don’t see it. Valuev is too slow.

Unless Valuev is at his very best, Haye will likely beat the Russian in a one-sided battle. He might even stop him. That’s my call.

John Hively is the author of The Rigged Game: Corporate America and a People Betrayed. One critic called it the “Origin of Species of modern macroeconomics.” Hively is also the author of the upcoming middle school fantasy novel, Clayton Beckett, the War Wizard and the Cat.