By Shawn Krest

Pardon me for not hanging breathlessly on the progress of whether or not the fight between Manny Pacquiao and Oscar De La Hoya happens on December 6 in Las Vegas. 

What has the sport of boxing come to when the top story earlier in the week had to do with a dispute over glove sizes.  These negotiations, while interesting, are far from the best.

Boxing fans of a certain age will point to the Marvin Hagler-Sugar Ray Leonard negotiations as perhaps the best in the history of the sport.  Sipping drinks at an after-party, fifty-somethings will point to that long road to a contract, twenty-years ago, and say, “Now there were two guys who simply didn’t like each other.” 

Everything from the closed circuit rights to the size of the Budweiser logo made history in those ground-breaking negotiations.  From the two-dozen member entourage to the abbreviated 45-minute first meeting, everything about the classic throw-down at the conference table was larger than life.

No one who was around back then will ever forget Marvelous Marvin’s comeback.  How he was originally offered $5 million guaranteed, half the total promised to Sugar Ray, but rallied to pull more than $12 million, nosing out Leonard’s guarantee by a few slim hundred thousand.

Arbitration honks from the next generation may not have been around for Hagler-Leonard, but proudly point to the Lennox Lewis-Mike Tyson negotiations as their fight-scheduling highlight. 

The heavyweights were represented by the big boys of boxing television, with Showtime’s exclusive Tyson deal going head-to-head against HBO’s contract with Lewis.  Neither network would back down, even after marathon nine-hour sessions involving two dozen negotiators. 

Tyson threatening to eat Lewis’ children at the press conference had nothing on the threats exchanged between network bosses and HBO and Showtime tried to compromise on a neutral Pay-Per-View show, or an exchange of live vs. replay rights that left everyone happy.  The resulting two-network simulcast remains one of the landmarks in negotiation history. 

Catch-weights and glove sizes.  Isn’t that what got us all involved in the sport?  Don’t we all sit around and shoot the breeze about classic purse splits?  Remember the classics—The Adjudication that Thrilled the Nation?  Or the Mediation in Manhattan?

To paraphrase the famous introduction, “Let’s begin to bargainnnnn.” 

I’ve always been somewhat of a contrarian.  So while the rest of the boxing world urgently pines for updates and waits to hear what the latest percent likelihood there is of the bout being signed—it’s zero until its 100 in my book—let’s assume the deal gets done and think about boxing fan’s next favorite discussion topic:  The action in the ring, and the impact of the result. 

Why De La Hoya will win:   Quite simply, he’s bigger.  Manny Pacquiao weighted 134.5 pounds in his last fight, the heaviest of his career.  The last time Oscar was that light was in mid-1995, when he tipped the scales a half pound under the lightweight limit to knock out Rafael Ruelas.  While both fighters have jumped up and down weight classes throughout their career, Pacquiao has never been within 20 pounds of de la Hoya.  The difference peaked with a 36 pound difference in December, 1997, but as recently as June 23, 2001—the last time both men fought on the same card—the weight difference was 33 pounds.

A catch weight of 147 would further hamper Pacquiao, whose distaste for training and rapid weight gain between fights are legendary.  An additional twelve pounds to play with may result in a pudgy Pacquiao stepping into the ring.

What a De La Hoya win would mean:   Immediately, it would probably mean a retirement announcement for the Golden Boy, and possibly for both fighters.  Pacquiao’s celebrity in the Philippines has been well-covered, and a loss to an older, albeit larger, fighter might tempt him to pursue his singing, acting, and political careers.  De la Hoya would probably say goodbye in the post-fight presser, but his claim to the pound-for-pound top spot might just be enough to lure Floyd Mayweather Jr. out of retirement and into a rematch. 

A de la Hoya win could also hurt the Golden Boy’s reputation.  Despite Pacquiao’s success, many observers will see the bout as an aging star picking on a much smaller guy in an effort to go out a winner.  Just as a resounding victory over Julio Cesar Chavez backfired into negative publicity, the crowning victory of de la Hoya’s career might end up leaving a black mark.  Furthermore, if de la Hoya takes the most obvious road to victory and uses his reach advantage to jab and back his way to victory, it will bring back memories of the latter rounds of the Felix Trinidad bout—when he bicycled his way to defeat.  

For the sport, a Golden Boy win will allow the annual Oscar super-fight express to chug on for another year but at the expense of one of the sport’s most exciting performers.  Even if he doesn’t retire, Pacquiao’s aura of invincibility will be pierced. 

Why Pacquiao will win:   He prides himself on being the legend killer, having already dispatched of future Hall-of-Famers Marquez, Barrera and Morales.  He has five-years on de la Hoya, and Oscar’s once-a-year schedule will not adequately prepare him for a frenzied Pacquiao attack.  De la Hoya has been able to dodge light-hitting (compared to Pacquiao) Steve Forbes and Floyd Mayweather in recent fights, but it has been two full years since de la Hoya faced someone with a knockout threat comparable to the Pac Man.  And Manny’s offensive won’t be as easily dissected as Ricardo Mayorga. 

Pacquiao’s rise in weight classes has to catch up to him sometime, unless he plans on fighting Wladimir Klitschko some time in 2011, but thus far, his power has moved up with him.  Since winning his first world title, Pac Man is 4-1 with 4 knockouts when he steps up to a new weight division. 

While De La Hoya would have a four plus inch height advantage over the 5’6” Pacquiao, Manny knocked out Jorge Solis and Erik Morales, both of whom had at least two inches on him.  A two-plus inch advantage didn’t help de la Hoya against Mayweather. 

Finally, Pacquiao would be the first southpaw De La Hoya has faced in more than a decade.  He went the distance with Hector Camacho in 1997 despite having an 11-year advantage in age, and struggled to solve an aging Pernell Whitaker earlier that year.  In addition to lining up left-handed, Whitaker further frustrated de la Hoya by crouching, in essence becoming a smaller fighter. 

What a Pacquiao win would mean:   A possible shift in the cultural center of boxing.  De La Hoya’s rise to power moved the sport to the west and south.  Prior to the Golden Boy, California produced plenty of fighters, but East Coast cities and Las Vegas were clearly the home of major fights.  For example, Muhammad Ali fought all around the world, but after winning the heavyweight title, he fought in California just twice.  De la Hoya made Los Angeles an elite fight venue.  He also made Latin American fans the lifeblood of the sport and gave Latin fighters the potential to be superstars.

Like pre-de la Hoya Mexico, boxing is extremely popular in the Far East, but virtually ignored in the rest of the boxing world.  Ask any observer why lighter weights aren’t popular, and the answer undoubtedly will include the phrase “they’re all Asians.”  Unless the invincible heavyweight champion loses in a historic Tokyo upset or a wild fight becomes a YouTube sensation, Asian boxing is virtually ignored.  A win over de la Hoya and Pacquiao becomes a sensation on two continents and moves our attention back to his home nation.

Overview:   In addition to the age-old matchup storylines—old vs. young, big vs. small, lefty vs. orthodox — this bout matches east and west, as this hemisphere’s most recognizable fighter of the last 20 years takes on the most popular fighter from the Far East.  The outcome will change the top of the sport’s most elite list, and could have far-reaching impacts on the sport’s demographics and the location of major fights for years to come.