By Charles Jay
THE BODOG LINE
http://www.bodog.com/welcome/1768535-D2A7/sports-betting/boxing.jsp
DANIEL PONCE DE LEON VS. REY BAUTISTA
WBO 122-lb. title
August 11 -- Sacramento
Daniel Ponce De Leon -165
Rey Bautista +135
TOTAL ROUNDS
Under 9.5 Rounds -160
Over 9.5 Rounds +120
Daniel Ponce de Leon was not incredibly impressive against Gerry Penalosa, at least as far as getting his opponent out of there. But he did win by ten points on two of the judges' scorecards and twelve points on the third. And consider that Penalosa was a veteran opponent in every sense of the word; a former world champion with an 18-year career. Bautista is quite the opposite, in that he is 21 years old, a pro for only four years and a fighter who has not been in with a lot of world-class opponents.
He is also going to be different in that he is going to force the action. Bautista is a good puncher, but he's also a high-energy fighter who wants to pressure his foe. It's worked so far, with a 23-0, 17 KO's record. But he may not like it so much here. I'm somewhat skeptical of young fighters who haven't passed too many tests, especially when they go in with somebody who is going to throw curveballs at the. Ponce de Leon lacks defense but he is very strong; a big puncher with power early. That gives him a chance to get Bautista's respect in the first three rounds, and sometimes that changes the tone of a fight. He won't have to look for this guy, which should suit him.
Bautista is talented - there is no doubt about that. But he can be hurt too; that happened to him against Sergio Medina in the title elimination fight, where he had some anxious moments before coming out with the decisive win. Sometimes the young guys who haven't been around all that much have a difficult time with real unorthodox fighters, particularly those who can hit. That's why I like Daniel Ponce de Leon here, though I have a feeling Bautista is going to tough this one out to the end and show he's got some of the qualities of a guy with real staying power in this game.
JAY'S PLAYS:
Ponce De Leon to win -165
Over 9.5 Rds. +120
Ponce De Leon by decision +240
Also, fight props:
* Fight margin less than 3 pts at the end of Round 3 -170
* Rey Bautista points handicap (Lederman) scorecard +4½ (-125)
* Fight ends by any Decision (Technical or 12 Round Decision) +180
* Fight goes distance +190
For details on all these props, check out Bodog Boxing
http://www.bodog.com/welcome/1768535-D2A7/sports-betting/boxing.jsp
THE BODOG LINE
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JOHNNY GONZALEZ VS. GERRY PENALOSA
WBO 118-lb. title
August 11 -- Sacramento
Jhonny Gonzalez -500
Gerry Penalosa +300
TOTAL ROUNDS
Over 9.5 Rounds -275
Under 9.5 Rounds +215
Gerry Penalosa moved up in weight and acquitted himself admirably against Daniel Ponce De Leon, dropping a one-sided decision on the scorecards but confusing Ponce De Leon a bit along the way. The problem, though, was that he kind of fought like an opponent, not registering enough offensive output to make much of a dent with the judges. He's made some remarks in the interim to Freddie Roach, trainer to the stars, that if Roach were in his corner, he might have won that title bout (Roach was working with Oscar De La Hoya in camp at the time). Well, obviously money talks. But I don't like to hear that kind of talk out of a fighter. When you're looking for excuses you're in a sort of denial.
At age 35, and after eighteen years, 59 fights and eight world championship appearances, Penalosa doesn't have any legitimate excuses at his disposal. And besides, what makes anyone think Freddie Roach would have made the difference between losing by a total of 32 points on the judges' cards and winning? Anyone who feels that way has severely overrated the impact of a trainer.
Jhonny Gonzalez brings a natural size advantage to the table. He went toe-to-toe in a brutal encounter with Israel Vazquez, and we certainly know what Vazquez is capable of. When you look at a lot of his opponents, there are some experienced guys there - Mark Johnson, Ratanachai Sor Vorapin, Fernando Montiel, Vazquez - so there isn't going to be a "culture shock" here. Penalosa has been around forever and from a technical standpoint, he's not severely handicapped against this foe. Nothing's going to frazzle him.
But he is not at the same level in terms of sheer production and has physical obstacles to overcome - Gonzalez's chin may not be rock-hard, but he's tall (5'8"), angular, and will present a problem for Penalosa to get inside.
I like Gonzalez, of course, but since the straight number on him to win is not very exciting, I'll look long at the props at Bodog.
JAY'S PLAYS:
Fight props:
* Fight goes distance -200
* Gonzalez by decision -140
* Jhonny Gonzalez points handicap (Lederman) scorecard -2½ (-130)
For details on all these props, check out Bodog Boxing
http://www.bodog.com/welcome/1768535-D2A7/sports-betting/boxing.jsp
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