It’s been a roller coaster on the way to Saturday (DAZN, 8:30 PM EST).

For most of a year, it was about getting the Jr. bantamweight rubber match, Juan Francisco Estrada-Roman Gonzalez III, in the ring. It was delayed in the fall when Gonzalez caught COVID. It was off for now when Estrada caught the same in January. Gonzalez agreed to a replacement test in the form of younger flyweight titlist Julio Cesar Martinez.

The next twist came Friday when Martinez, who is moving up in weight and has been more active than Gonzalez with two fights since Gonzalez’s controversial loss to Estrada last year, including a fight in November, somehow missed the 115 lb. limit by two pounds before returning to the scale lighter for his official tally. 

Perhaps that speaks to Martinez blowing up too much in weight after his last fight to get back down with six weeks to prepare. While a late replacement, that’s not a historically short camp but that’s possible coming off the holidays. It could also speak to scale games for a fighter seeking an extra advantage in the biggest moment of his career. That would have come with risk.

Gonzalez was in his rights to walk away after getting his job done on the scale. 

Gonzalez did not and we have a fight as long as Martinez meets stipulations on Saturday. As reported by Jake Donovan, “As of Friday afternoon, the fight will proceed though with the stipulation of a same-day weigh-in to take place 9:00 a.m. local time Saturday. Per California State Athletic Commission (CSAC) rules, Martinez (18-1, 14KOs; 2ND) must weigh no heavier than 10% above the contracted limit—126.5 pounds—to avoid a mandatory fine. CSAC rules call for an immediate cancellation if a fighter weighs more than 15% above the contracted limit—132.25 pounds, as it relates to this fight.”

Is the aging Gonzalez still too skilled for Martinez, regardless of size, or is the youth movement at Jr. bantamweight to take another step forward this weekend?  

Let’s get into it. 

Stats and Stakes

Roman Gonzalez

Age: 34

Titles: None

Previous Titles: WBA Minimumwieght (2008-10, 3 Defenses); WBA Light Flyweight (2011-13, 5 Defenses); Lineal/TBRB/Ring/WBC World Flyweight (2014-16, 4 Defenses); WBC super flyweight (2016-17); WBA super flyweight (2020-21, 1 Defense) 

Height: 5’3   

Weight: 114 ¾ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Managua, Nicaragua  

Record: 50-3, 41 KO, 1 KOBY

Press Rankings: #2 (TBRB, Ring, ESPN, BoxRec) 

Record in Major Title Fights: 17-3, 10 KO, 1 KOBY (18-3, 11 KO, 1 KOBY including interim title fights)

Last Five Opponents: 131-16-4 (.881)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB/Ring Rated Foes: Eriberto Gejon KO1; Yutaka Niida TKO4; Katsunari Takayama UD12; Ramon Garcia KO4; Akira Yaegashi TKO9; Edgar Sosa TKO2; Brian Viloria TKO9; McWilliams Arroyo UD12; Carlos Cuadras UD12; Srisaket Sor Rungvisai L12, KO by 4; Khalid Yafai TKO9; Israel Gonzalez UD12; Juan Francisco Estrada L12

Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Juan Francisco Estrada UD12; Francisco Rodriguez Jr. TKO7; Moises Fuentes TKO5

Vs.

Julio Cesar Martinez 

Age: 27

Titles: WBC Flyweight (2019-Present, 4 Defenses)

Previous Titles: None 

Height: 5’2   

Weight: 116 ½ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Mexico City, Mexico

Record: 18-1, 14 KO, 2 No Contest

Press Rankings: #1 at Flyweight (TBRB, Ring, ESPN), #3 (BoxRec)

Record in Major Title Fights: 4-0, 3 KO, 2 No Contest

Last Five Opponents: 113-21-3 (.836)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Andrew Selby KO5; Charlie Edwards NC3; Cristofer Rosales TKO9; McWilliams Arroyo NC3

Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Edgar Sosa UD8

The Pick: Gonzalez has been out of the ring almost a year but continues to show a positive trend in making weight well. A fighter who tended to blow up between fights when he was younger is handling his layoffs better. The last three times Gonzalez was in the ring, he was still among the best fighters in the world with high volume offense, subtle defense, and good pop. In Martinez, Gonzalez faces a younger, fearless, offensive minded fighter who is still finding his ceiling. Martinez’s defense can be careless but he is always throwing hard and has quick hands. He came off the floor against Arroyo in the first, scored his own knockdowns, and looked well on his way to a win in his last fight before a clash of heads ended things early. 

Martinez can sometimes loop his shots and Gonzalez will need to get the timing early because there will be opportunities to land first and in combination when Martinez loads up. Martinez might have been heavier on Friday but there is a skill and experience gap favoring Gonzalez. Martinez needs to be first in exchanges and let Gonzalez know that his reply volleys can get there before Gonzalez can defend. Martinez might be faster than Gonzalez at this point. Martinez needs to assert that early and often.

It’s a tough call here but going on recent form Gonzalez has still looked very much like an elite battler. Ring rust and age piling up is a guess. The evidence in the ring is strong for Gonzalez. He was unfortunate in losing the decision to Estrada last year but that was a fight between two of the best little men of the last twenty years and Gonzalez showed he was still at that level. Eventually, youth gets served in boxing and Martinez is already established as one of the best flyweights in the game but his defensive liabilities and wide attacks look like liabilities against a fighter who still puts together punches as good as anyone in boxing. The pick is Gonzalez in a grueling decision.         

Rold Picks 2022: 8-3

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com