By Cliff Rold

It doesn’t take much to push someone off the top of the world.

Abner Mares was red hot just three years ago. A former Olympian with belts in three weight classes, he’d put together a take all comers resume that was hard not to admire. He won Showtime’s four-man bantamweight tournament, ended Anselmo Moreno’s decade long unbeaten streak, and was rising in pound-for-pound esteem.

Then he faced a lethal puncher and made a lethal mistake. He got caught. In just one round, Mares was brought back to earth.

He’s fought only four times since Jhonny Gonzalez knocked him out in August 2013, failing to impress in all but his last fight. Mares showed grit and determination in a fierce battle with Leo Santa Cruz in August 2015. He reminded everyone he was still world class.

He still lost, clear and clean, to Leo Santa Cruz. Now, with more than a year’s layoff after New York wouldn’t medically clear him earlier this year, Mares has a chance to get back in the title picture at featherweight.

Across the ring is one of the toughest outs in the division.  

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Jesus Cuellar

Age: 29

Title: WBA featherweight (2013-Present, 5 Defenses; comprised of interim and WBA sub-title; Carl Frampton is the WBA “Super” featherweight titlist)

Previous Titles: None

Height: 5’6

Weight: 124 lbs.

Hails from: Jose C. Paz, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Record: 28-1, 21 KO, 1 KOBY

Record in Major Title Fights: 6-0, 3 KO including interim title fights

Rankings: #5 (BoxingScene), #7 (TBRB, ESPN, Ring, Boxing Monthly)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 3 (Rico Ramos UD12; Juan Manuel Lopez KO2; Vic Darchinyan TKO8)

Vs.

Abner Mares

?Age: 31

Title: None

Previous Titles: IBF bantamweight (2011-12, 1 Defense); WBC super bantamweight (2012-13, 1 Defense); WBC featherweight (2013)

Height: 5’4 ½

Weight: 126 lbs.

Hails from: Montebello, California

Record: 29-2-1, 15 KO, 1 KOBY

Rankings: #5 (ESPN, Ring), #8 (BoxingScene)

Record in Major Title Fights: 5-2-1, 1 KO, 1 KOBY

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 9 (Isidro Garcia RTD7; Yonnhy Perez D12; Vic Darchinyan SD12; Joseph Agbeko MD12, UD12; Eric Morel UD12; Anselmo Moreno UD12; Daniel Ponce De Leon TKO9; Johnny Gonzalez KO by 1; Leo Santa Cruz L12)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Cuellar B; Mares B+

Pre-Fight: Power – Cuellar B+; Mares B

Pre-Fight: Defense – Cuellar C+; Mares B- 

Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Cuellar B+; Mares B+

The one element Cuellar will have on his side from bell to bell is power. He comes forward and throws hard all night. In every fight he’s had going back to at least 2012 (according to BoxRec), he’s scored at least a knockdown. Since being stopped by Oscar Encandon in October 2011, he’s won eleven in a row and finished seven foes early.

When he doesn’t stop his man, he grinds them down on points. He’s a blue-collar battler but how good has the run been? His two biggest wins, Lopez and Darchinyan, were spent bullets when Cuellar got to them. Does Mares fall in that category?

His performance against Santa Cruz says no. He lost but it was competitive throughout and Santa Cruz is world class and in his prime.

Will inactivity hamper Mares? That would seem to be a push. Mares has been out over a year but this is Cuellar’s first fight since December of last year. Cuellar’s southpaw approach could be more of a problem for Mares early in setting his timing. 

Defensively, both men are there to be hit. Mares has been caught more in the last few years but still holds the edge here, better able to slip and ride shots than Cuellar. For Cuellar, his offense really is his defense. He’s apt to walk into shots as he tries to unload heavy artillery. He’s presumed the stronger man but is coming in at a five year low of 124. Could that affect his legs as Mares gets going to the body and with hooks upstairs? Will Cuellar’s reach and power advantages keep Mares from setting down to land what he’ll need to?

In terms of intangibles, Mares is the more proven fighter. Outside the Gonzalez disaster, he’s been a durable hand. Cuellar has been steady but has yet to really break through at the A level to truly determine his ceiling. We’ll see if Mares can further illuminate how deep his reserves really are.

The Pick

It’s hard to say who needs this fight more. For Cuellar, it could be his one big shot at a breakthrough. Heavy handed and strong, he’s not a guy most of the division is going to go out of their way to make room for. A loss for him could mean a struggle for this sort of TV time again. For Mares, a loss could create opportunity if it makes him seem like the sort of vulnerable foe a young name wants to try to build on. His status as an A player could take a hit; what a loss looks like would influence that call. The thinking here is we’ll find out what kind of loss it is. Cuellar has fewer miles on him, is naturally a little bigger, and hits harder. It’s going to be fun for a while but eventually Cuellar takes over. The pick is Cuellar by late stoppage. 

Report Card and Staff Picks 2016: 40-13

Cliff’s Notes…

Saturday will be stacked with boxing from the early morning hours until late into the evening. Here are the picks on the other weekend action…The day begins with a pair of undefeated heavyweights vying for the vacant WBO belt, with Joseph Parker (21-0, 18 KO) vs. Andy Ruiz (29-0, 19 KO). …Luis Concepcion (35-4, 24 KO) lost the WBA 115 lb. title on the scale Friday. Khalid Yafai (20-0, 14 KO) will win the now vacant title that he was probably going to do no matter what weight Concepcion came in at…Anthony Joshua (17-0, 17 KO) annihilates Eric Molina (25-3, 19 KO) to retain the IBF heavyweight title. A first round knockout wouldn’t be a surprise…HBO’s Saturday main event looks like a farce after challenger John Molina (29-6, 23 KO) failed to make weight on Friday. It never looked like much more than a showcase anyways. Jr. welterweight champion Terence Crawford (29-0, 20 KO) is the pick inside the distance…Finally, in the Showtime co-feature to Cuellar-Mares, we have a potentially fantastic fight between rising lights in one of boxing’s deepest divisions. IBF 154 lb. titlist Jermall Charlo (24-0, 18 KO) talks like a guy who has done more than beat Austin Trout and K-9 Bundrage. Julian Williams (22-0-1, 14 KO) is the sort of mandatory that makes the system worth having. Both young men are talented but the steadier Williams is the pick by decision…Enjoy the loaded weekend. 

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel, the Yahoo Pound for Pound voting panel, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com