By Peter Lim

Jermell Charlo (31-1, 15 KOs) and Jorge Cota (28-3, 25 KOs) will meet at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas on Sunday. The card, televised on Fox, will also see former two-division titleholder and two-time Olympic gold medalist Guillermo Rigondeaux take on Julio Ceja in the co-main event.

The main event was originally meant to be a rematch between Charlo and Tony Harrison but Harrison pulled out three weeks before the fight due to an ankle injury, and Cota was brought in as an 11th-hour replacement. Harrison had dethroned Charlo of the WBC junior middleweight title via highly controversial decision in December.  

Charlo is superior to Cota in virtually every facet of the game. He has better hand and foot speed than Cota and his skill set is by far the more versatile and polished. Despite his below-50 percent knockout rate compared to Cota’s 80 percent, his punching power is equal or better than Cota’s after factoring his higher quality of opposition.

The mismatch is further amplified if a common opponent is any indicator the outcome. In his only stoppage loss, Cota was kayoed by Erikson Lubin in 2017. Seven months later, Lubin was flattened for the full count by a single punch in the first round by Charlo.

The lone advantage that Cota might have in the fight (a strong emphasis on “might”) is the level of motivation that each fighter brings into the ring. 

Charlo was super eager to avenge his only loss, which he and most observers considered a robbery, against Harrison and Harrison’s withdrawal must have been a major letdown. With Derrick James in his corner, Charlo’s physical conditioning will undoubtedly at or close to 100 percent when he steps into the ring. But it would be hard to imagine that the fire in his belly would be burning with the same intensity as it would be if the opponent in the opposite corner was Tony Harrison.

"I want to get him out of there,” Charlo said. “This is a fight to show that I've been back and I never left. I feel like the judges took my title, so all I can do is go in there and be me.

"It was a quick change to Cota, but I'm always ready for anybody. Tony Harrison could have gone in there fighting like Cota, so it's no difference to me. I'm prepared for anything. This is just the kind of adversity that champions face.”

Cota, who hails from Sinaloa, Mexico, on the other hand, has nothing to lose and everything to gain. He was plucked from obscurity to face a top-shelf fighter on three weeks’ notice so nobody will really fault him if he loses. But should he somehow pull of an upset on national TV, Cota’s stock will skyrocket, opening doors to more lucrative fights.

"I don't feel any pressure at all for this fight. On the contrary, I'm very motivated to spoil Charlo's plans on Sunday night,” Cota said.

"I'm not worried about what Charlo brings to the ring. I know he's a great fighter, but I have the power, speed and boxing ability to beat anybody. I'm confident of how this fight is going to end on Sunday."

In the unlikely event that Cota wins, he will be the latest fighter to ride a wave of recent upsets by Mexican and Mexican-American underdogs encompassing virtually the entire spectrum of weight divisions in the sport.

On June 1, massive 268-pound Any Ruiz Jr. scored a monumental upset by stopping Anthony Joshua who held three of the four major heavyweight belts.

On June 21, 108-pound Elwin Soto scored a come-from-behind 12th round TKO over titleholder Angel Acosta who, with 20 knockouts in his 20 victories, was highly favored to win.

In February, Andrew Cancio, who holds a full-time job as a jackhammer operator, upset highy-touted Alberto Machado via 4th round TKO for an alphabet belt at 130 pounds. Cancio proved it was no fluke needing one less round to repeat the feat in the rematch on the same card as Soto-Acosta.

Read prediction for Charlo versus Cota at: https://peterliminator.blogspot.com/2019/06/jermell-charlo-vs-jorge-cota.html