Hatton vs. Castillo: The Final Analysis

By Charles Jay

THE BODOG LINE

(Bet this fight at Bodog - http://www.bodog.com/welcome/1768535-D928/sports-betting/boxing.jsp)

Ricky Hatton  -220

Jose Luis Castillo  +180

Over 11.5 rounds  -215

Under 11.5 rounds  +165

Ricky Hatton by KO, TKO or DQ +350

Draw +1600 

(Odds, naturally, are subject to change)

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An old matchmaker once told me, "There ain't nothin' like a good, two-fisted brawl."

No there ain't.

Maybe that's what we have in store for us on Saturday night in Las Vegas, as Jose Luis Castillo and Ricky Hatton get together with the IBO junior welterweight title belt on the line. It's a nice strategic fight for both, because Castillo, after some very weird stuff having happened to him and around him over the past couple of years, looks for an opportunity to make people forget about his weight problems and the controversy surrounding his fights with Diego Corrales, while Hatton sees himself taking another step toward becoming boxing's next worldwide superstar. I don't know if this fight will get him there, but a victory would almost undoubtedly lead to the opportunity to take this sport's audience by the throat.

Castillo, as we mentioned, has been through a lot. The weight problems for the third Corrales fight led to a sizable fine and suspension. Then his brother Cesar died from a brain aneurysm.

The death of Corrales has also affected Castillo to an extent, due in no small part to all the drama that existed around their would-be trilogy.

Hatton is the "star" here. None of the sport's big names is really clamoring for a fight with Castillo. But many of them see dollar signs when they consider the sizable audience Hatton has in the U.K. and the recognizability he is gaining here in the States. Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather, for example, know that if there is a big payday in their future that doesn't include fighting each other, it could be in a showdown against Hatton.

So if you're one of those people who believe the judges in Las Vegas "follow the money," that would be a factor. But consider that if it were absolute, it would have played in De La Hoya's favor against Mayweather and Shane Mosley before that.

There is little question about what Castillo has to overcome here. Hatton is active and aggressive - a whirlwind, if you will. If he can't outbox or outpunch his opponent he will certainly outhustle him. He did exactly that against Kostya Tszyu, and made the longtime champion quit two years ago. Hatton fights at a breakneck pace for the most part, and since he has gone past the tenth round on seven separate occasions, there probably isn't a huge question about his stamina. And any opponent always has to be on the lookout for Hatton to get rough on the inside.

I'm not sure Castillo minds that too much. I don't want to use the oft-beaten cliche about the "tough Mexican," but Castillo is precisely that. He can give and take on the inside or outside, and I don't see him wilting as Tszyu did.

I don't know if it's just a coincidence that Hatton, as soon as he left his "Manchester advantage" behind, has looked something less than awe-inspiring in his two latest U.S. tilts. The first of those was a fight at a higher weight (147 pounds) against the crafty southpaw Luis Collazo, so a dominant performance was perhaps too much to ask. But Hatton blamed the hotel air conditioning system for his listless effort down the stretch against Juan Urango. Hmmmm.

As for Castillo, his last outing, against the relatively inexperienced (15 fights) Herman Ngoudjo, was way too close for comfort, but those who know the fight game best understand that fighters prepare for different fights to differing degrees. No doubt the same effort Castillo exhibited against Ngoudjo won't get i done against Hatton, but then again, it's doubtful we will see that same Castillo in the ring, unless he is suddenly a shot fighter.

Speaking of shot fighters, was that what Tszyu was when he fought Hatton? Remember, he had only one fight in two and a half years prior to facing Ricky, and hasn't stepped into the ring since. Not to taint Hatton's win too much, but I wonder how bad the Russian-turned-Australian really wanted it that night. Now also consider that aside from Tszyu, while Hatton has faced some good fighters, there's been no one really exceptional; certainly no one on Castillo's level.

That plays into something that is a factor that can simply not be discarded here - the experience factor. Castillo has been through just about everything. There were the two fights (one win, one draw) with southpaw boxer-type Stevie Johnston; the two bouts with Mayweather, one of which made him perhaps the only guy to fight on even terms with Floyd; the wins over Juan Casamayor and Julio Diaz, the epic loss to Corrales, and of course, the knockout win in the rematch. Once again, unless he has indeed lost it, I don't think there's anything Hatton's going to bring anything into the ring that's going to surprise him a lot.

In the end, Hatton definitely has the capability to set a frenetic pace and steal a lot of rounds away if Castillo isn't on his toes at all times, but Castillo is the guy with more ring experience, proven durability, enough pop in his punch to do damage, and the ability to make Hatton fight three hard minutes in every round, and as the underdog here (+180, or 9/5), he has to be respected.

But the bigger play for me is going to be on the distance prop. At Bodog (http://www.bodog.com/welcome/1768535-D928/sports-betting/boxing.jsp), it is -215 (laying a little more than 2/1) that the fight will go over 11.5 rounds, which is, in effect, a route-going fight. I see toughness in both guys, and while I haven't seen Hatton get hit on the chin a whole lot, I have confidence in his ability to grit this one out. More importantly, deep down I think these guys are expecting to go the distance, and have prepared their game plan accordingly. Combining my two opinions, we have an attractive price on Castillo to win on points.

And so,

JAYS PLAYS:

Over 11.5 rounds **

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