Comments Thread For: Charlo's Path To Victory Over Harrison Using "Moneyball" Boxing Analytics

[BIGPOPPAPUMP]

By Mitch Abramson - For all their trash talk and finger pointing, Jermell Charlo and Tony Harrison have also jawed about strategy in the run-up to their rematch on Saturday. Charlo spoke of attacking the body and Harrison of countering Charlo's bull-rush when they sat down separately to break down Harrison's controversial win last December for Charlo's...
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[-Kev-]

I’m all for analytics in boxing. It can work. Maybe not like it does in baseball. If a batter is bad vs breaking balls down and away, and great against low fastballs, then you stay away from low fastballs and feed him breaking balls. The only way you lose as a pitcher is if you make a mistake pitch (which does happen often).

In boxing though, it’s very different. It’s a sport where the two contestants are always playing both offense and defense at the same time, there is no taking turns to score points. There is no running up and down a court and saying “okay now it’s your turn to hit me while I try to defend”. There is also the variable of punching power, chin, handspeed, footspeed, mentality, physical ability, the level of the boxer (elite, B class, Gatekeeper, showcase opponent, etc) So there are a lot of variables that go into boxing analytics. Analytics would have their work cut out for them in this sport for sure. But it can work, it would just have to be a lot more sophisticated than any other sport.

[RoyJonesJrp4pno1]

I think Charlo's best chance to win is walking Harrison down and getting him on the ropes.

[YoungManRumble]

Harrison's connect % is like a wild roller coaster. Is that what Charlo meant in the face to face PBC vid where he says Harrison "manipulated the system"? Making it seem like he's doing more than he is. Or is guy just talking out the side of his neck?

[PBR Streetgang]

I'm all for statistical analysis to improve effectiveness but numbers are a very dangerous thing. They may not capture the full truth: you may be looking at the wrong ones or you may be extrapolating the wrong thing from the right ones.

What the analyst says is either keep steady pressure on Harrison or go the full opposite and force him to be the aggressor. It's been a while since I saw the Harrison fights with Hurd and Charlo and even longer since I saw his fight with Nelson but what I recall is that Harrison gassed from either mental or physical pressure in his two losses and was stopped. In both he was either winning or competitive at the time of stoppage. I don't recall Charlo doing that, he ceded the opportunity to create constant pressure in an effort to stretch Harrison with a single shot. When he was looking for that shot, he often got interrupted by a single crisp shot from Harrison. In a close fight, that inability to set pace cost him a close and disputed decision.

[Johnny Rubber]

Harrison's connect % is like a wild roller coaster. Is that what Charlo meant in the face to face PBC vid where he says Harrison "manipulated the system"? Making it seem like he's doing more than he is. Or is guy just talking out the side of his neck?

The F2F was hilarious..

Charlo "who have you beat?"

Harrison "l beat you"

[TheUptownKid]

Stats article is interesting and I did notice Harrison being more cautious versus Charlo than he was in the Hurd fight. I think the stats probably say that more output would be the key to victory for Charlo, but i see it another way.

I think Charlo lost because he seemed to be outboxed. Not that he was outworked or even effected significantly by punches, he just looked somewhat outclassed in rounds. I think this happened because of his aggressive style and getting cleanly countered by Harrison. He just walked into flashy counters often which swung rounds.

Charlo is not a natural inside fighter, so if i were him I would let Harrison lead, then not only counter but dictate pace in spurts off of open opportunities, rather than rushing in.

[TheUptownKid]

I'm all for statistical analysis to improve effectiveness but numbers are a very dangerous thing. They may not capture the full truth: you may be looking at the wrong ones or you may be extrapolating the wrong thing from the right ones.

What the analyst says is either keep steady pressure on Harrison or go the full opposite and force him to be the aggressor. It's been a while since I saw the Harrison fights with Hurd and Charlo and even longer since I saw his fight with Nelson but what I recall is that Harrison gassed from either mental or physical pressure in his two losses and was stopped. In both he was either winning or competitive at the time of stoppage. I don't recall Charlo doing that, he ceded the opportunity to create constant pressure in an effort to stretch Harrison with a single shot. When he was looking for that shot, he often got interrupted by a single crisp shot from Harrison. In a close fight, that inability to set pace cost him a close and disputed decision.

Hurd took a bunch of shots, was getting outboxed, but he made Harrison very uncomfortable toward the end. Pressed the tempo and landed everywhere while having to take some shots.

[Tatabanya]

Whatever. I bet a few ones on a draw.

[DeeMoney]

I love the premise of using statistical analysis in boxing, i see a few flaws though.
One is the accuracy of the data. Compared to say baseball where traditional stats are predicated on easily defiined events (hits, walks, ball, strike, etc). And advanced info like spin rate and exit velo are based on multiple high tech cameras in each park provided by the league. Boxing has no such uniformity across the board. At most boxing has a couple guys clicking buttons couting punches. This may skew actual metrics.

Also, scoring in boxing is so ambiguous and predicated on individual bias as to really alter what event dictates success. In other sports-baseball, basketball, etc it is clearly defined what you need to do to be successful. In boxing you can have one fighter land more punches and better punches, but if his opponent is the ‘ring general’ or practices better forms of defense the opponent can be given the round. If they really wanted to use metrics for good, theyd analyze punch stats (both clear miss and partial land), punch timing, as well as boxers relative position in the ring and movement- and come up with metrics for what each individual judge scores. This would give fighters better knowledge if how to achieve success and possibly clean up corruption/poor judging.