Comments Thread For: What Do The String Of Upsets In 2021 Say About Boxing?

[BIGPOPPAPUMP]

By Corey Erdman - The economy of boxing is built on the story of the underdog. As an industry, pugilism posits that it is a haven for individuals who are underdogs in life, literally fighting their way out of given circumstances. But on a more practical level, the industry is fueled...
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[PredatorStyle]

Fascinating stuff, thanks! If there are say 8 to 16 upsets a year; happy hunting!

[Damn Wicked]

I says that anyone can be beaten. All it takes is the right opponent at the right time. I find the idea that certain fighters are unbeatable to be a ridiculous notion. Even if a fighter goes undefeated in a hundred fights, there's still someone out there that could beat him..., someone who could even destroy him. There's unkown fighters, up and coming great prospects, fcking street fighters who can punch as hard as the heaviest hitting fighters in the sport, and they can be recklessly unpredictable. There's almost 8 billion people in this world....and many of them are beasts. These elite fighters in boxing are excellent but they aren't immortal superheroes. There's a reason HUGE underdogs sometimes kick the piss out of the elite. We're all just mere mortals.

[MulaKO]

Upsets are what is needed in boxing
Taking a loss does not ruin your career but actually refines it
No more hunting for 50 and 0’s

[1hourRun]

Vasily Bumachenko, has kept making the odds-makers look like fools since 2014. The match-makers and mathematicians should study Vasily to explain this phenomena.

[DaNeutral.]

In one sense it says that the sport is at a very competitive standard right now and that can only be good for it and good for the fans.

On the flip side maybe because it is so competitive these "upsets" are only a shock because some of these Boxers have been highly protected via careful match making with a measure of spin and promotion that gets ppl thinking they are unstoppable monsters and then thier match making runs out of cherry's or they take a wrong turn in to a fighter that just hasn't had the spin and promotion.

[Boxing Beast]

I think it just speaks to the random talents in boxing. Mannys old sparring partner conquers a giant, shocking right. A power punching vet knocks out a English champion, seems familiar. A Ukrainian amateur and pro champion beats a western world champ. That’s starting to become too familiar

[Get em up]

I says that anyone can be beaten. All it takes is the right opponent at the right time. I find the idea that certain fighters are unbeatable to be a ridiculous notion. Even if a fighter goes undefeated in a hundred fights, there's still someone out there that could beat him..., someone who could even destroy him. There's unkown fighters, up and coming great prospects, fcking street fighters who can punch as hard as the heaviest hitting fighters in the sport, and they can be recklessly unpredictable. There's almost 8 billion people in this world....and many of them are beasts. These elite fighters in boxing are excellent but they aren't immortal superheroes. There's a reason HUGE underdogs sometimes kick the piss out of the elite. We're all just mere mortals.

Great way to put it! Fighters are human too. The long active and seemingly untouchable careers do have alot to do with preparation and training but it's also clever match making at the perfect time too. Managers and advisors get rich providing the right opponent at the right time for fighters.

[SteveM]

These higher upset stats for the last few years are misleading. In any series of results you will get deviation from the mean, Sometimes there's a historical shift in the mean and that becomes the new normal. But that doesn't look like the case here. Promoters are still following the same model.
The most obvious recent phenom is the pandemic leading to a shift in the terms of competition ie. fights with no crowds. This could(should?) favor the underdog more.

Other than that, this article encapsulates the total pointlessness of Lyle Fitzsimmons' Tuesday fight prediction record where he proudly displays his correct prediction tally at 75% or thereabouts. He is actually proud that he has that 75% record yet most of the time all he is doing is saying that a -1000 odds favourite is going to win - no sheet - how difficult is that to predict?

My own tip is to look for favourites who part of their favourite status is based on reputation. And yet ....
1/ they haven't looked as good in their previous 2/3 fights
2/ they are inactive
3/ they are either old or have been injured/sick
4/ dealing with a bunch of personal issues
5/ struggles to make weight

So you can see Mickey Garcia had 1/, and 2/ going against him
Teo Lopez had 4/ and 4/ and 4/ plus also 3/ if you believe that he had a heart issue
Kid Galahad didn't have any of those issues unless maybe weight. Plus Kiko Martinez was assumed to be done in his career - that would be the biggest upset for me.

Golovkin is the next on the list. He has 1/, 2/ and 3/ - just not sure that Murata is the guy to exploit it. If Golovkin was fighting a younger top 10 fighter then more likely.
Gary Russel's inactivity will catch up with him at some point but so far he hasn't looked bad.
Santa Cruz's inactivity makes him very suspect whenever he comes back.
Spence with the eye and the car crash - he doesn't have longevity in his career going forward
Rungvisai at 115 or 118 - against a top opponent - too inactive plus old

edit ... how could I forget Keeeef? If you can get decent odds on Barrios grab 'em because Thurman is 1/, 2/, 3/ and possibly 5/ ***STAR PICK*** FOR UPSET

[SteveM]

I says that anyone can be beaten. All it takes is the right opponent at the right time. I find the idea that certain fighters are unbeatable to be a ridiculous notion. Even if a fighter goes undefeated in a hundred fights, there's still someone out there that could beat him..., someone who could even destroy him. There's unkown fighters, up and coming great prospects, fcking street fighters who can punch as hard as the heaviest hitting fighters in the sport, and they can be recklessly unpredictable. There's almost 8 billion people in this world....and many of them are beasts. These elite fighters in boxing are excellent but they aren't immortal superheroes. There's a reason HUGE underdogs sometimes kick the piss out of the elite. We're all just mere mortals.

there are reason's - but seem my post above - normally they are elite by reputation but there are underlying issues. You can forget street fighters in a boxing ring. They lose all their advantages and have to follow the rules which are imposed by the ref.
And the notion that somewhere amongst 8 billion people there's an unknown spectacular fighter? Sure maybe but if he was a trained boxer he'd be in a ring and winning national competitions. If that's not the case then what happens when that guy hets in a ring with Bud Crawford? .......... Lol - we all know the answer. I'm pretty confident that at this point in time the 3 best welterweight boxers in the world are Bud, Spence and Ennis. If they are not then Ugas and Ortiz will be who are. There is no unknown 147lb street-fighter or prospect anywhere in the world who is stepping into a boxing ring and beating Crawford in January.