By Charles Jay
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I did a daily radio show at one time in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area. Part of it involved handicapping football games. I was having a good year, hitting about 63% of my games. There was a guy who came on the air before me who would boast about how he hit 65% of his football games, and what I realized after a while was that he was picking the straight-up winners of games, rather than doing it by the pointspread.
So one day when I came on the air I explained to the audience that this guy wasn't really "hitting" anything; that picking the outright winners of NFL games, while not a slam dunk, was nonetheless much easier than doing it against a pointspread. Just by going with the teams listed as the favorites, you're going to have a healthy percentage. This guy was bragging about what he was doing - the sad part was that he didn't seem to understand what it all meant.
My point is, it is not the greatest feat in the world to put predictions up when you're picking the 6-1 favorite. If you're utilizing odds (and who shouldn't be?), you can't afford to sustain too many upsets. As for me, I like to find a good, live dog. My percentage doesn't need to be so good. Will we have a "dog day"?
ROY JONES JR. VS. ANTHONY HANSHAW
IBC Light Heavyweight title
THE BODOG LINE
Roy Jones -225
Anthony Hanshaw +185
When a guy is shot, does he then turn around and get un-shot at some point? I don't think so. Jones has been around for a long time and knows a lot of tricks, but that's never been what he's depended on.
With him, it's always been about athleticism and speed. He lacks a lot of that now, at age 38.
I was a huge Jones fan. But now he's like a pitcher who relied on velocity for years and years, but has now lost his fastball. To continue the baseball analogy, while he may have an adequate curve, that's not what he's ever used to get people out. There is some ring savvy there, but it's not his stock in trade. When he fought Antonio Tarver the third time it was almost painful to watch, how he was unable to pull the trigger and take advantage of Tarver's vulnerability.
I can't imagine he's going to look much sharper here.
Hanshaw is undoubtedly a man on the way up. He's a versatile boxer-puncher. What he lacks in experience here, comparatively speaking, he's going to make up for with energy. He hasn't been afraid to face tough guys, and he's mentally tough himself. He's young, strong, hungry, and it's been a year since Jones has fought. previous to that, he had three straight losses. What he has left is a mystery to me. I imagine he is a favorite based on reputation, but this could be that point where it comes to an end for him. And we haven't even mentioned his suspect chin, which Hanshaw has the ability to exploit.
Jones will go the distance, but I can see Hanshaw doing enough to outhustle him. Even with the Mississippi judges, who will be biased toward Jones, the price makes it worthwhile to take a shot with the younger man.
JAY'S PLAY:
Hanshaw to win +185 **
ANTONIO MARGARITO VS. PAUL WILLIAMS
WBO Welterweight title
THE BODOG LINE
Antonio Margarito -125
Paul Williams +105
Over 10.5 rds. -150
Under 10.5 rds. +110
Antonio Margarito by KO, TKO, or DQ -- 9/5 (+180)
Antonio Margarito by Decision -- 5/2 (+250)
Paul Williams by KO, TKO, or DQ -- 11/4 (+275)
Paul Williams by Decision -- 3/1
Draw -- 16/1
Antonio Margarito is a good, solid fighter, although something of a media snowball (at least as it has reached hard-core fans) has made him out to be a monster fighter. Sometimes it's not who you fight, but who you don't fight, especially if you can create the impression that he won't fight you. That's where Margarito's camp has done a good job, making believe that Floyd Mayweather has been "ducking him." Of course, the reality is that Margarito doesn't mean enough money for Mayweather, and that is the simple explanation as to why a fight like that doesn't materialize.
Nevertheless, his reputation has been enhanced, which can create value if you're looking at the other side. I'm not sure that value is in abundance here. Judging by the price, Williams is getting quite a bit of respect, the result of the exposure he's received on HBO and ESPN. Margarito hasn't been in with a lot of top-flight welters, but he does have quite an edge in experience here. Also, he's got more power, and has been in championship bouts, while Williams has not. Actually, Margarito has an edge in several areas.
That would normally be enough to run with Margarito at -125. But if Williams knows how to apply it correctly, he's going to have a style edge. We've seen it before, with guys like Michael Nunn or Frankie Liles in recent years. The tall, angular southpaw with boxing ability who knows how to be elusive is a pain in the ass for anybody to fight. Williams may prove to be no exception. Not that Margarito hasn't fought southpaws; it just that he hasn't fought THIS kind of southpaw.
Margarito has notably taken cruel advantage of another relatively inexperienced opponent before, when he blew out Kermit Cintron. But Cintron was not exactly a slickster, just a guy who goes in there looking to batter his foe into submission. When that didn't work, Plan A crumbled. And there was no Plan B.
I have a feeling Williams may have a Plan B and a Plan C to boot. That is, if he needs it. Just being a pain in the ass to fight might serve him well enough here.
That having been said, let's go to the 'however" part. Williams' style may help him go the distance, and put forth a good showing, but if I can get 5/2 (+250) on Margarito in some way, I want to take it with the more experienced, hardened fighter over the guy who's going through this for the first time, and whose toughest opponent, by far, was Walter Matthysse.
JAY'S PLAY:
Margarito by decision +250 ***
KERMIT CINTRON VS. WALTER MATTHYSSE
IBF Welterweight title
THE BODOG LINE
Kermit Cintron -500
Walter Dario Matthyysse +350
Under 9.5 rds. -180
Over 9.5 rds. +140
Kermit Cintron by KO, TKO, or DQ -- 10/21 (-210)
Kermit Cintron by Decison -- 3/1
Walter Dario Matthysse by KO, TKO, or DQ -- 21/4 (+525)
Walter Dario Matthysse by Decison -- 14/1
Draw -- 20/1
Speaking of Cintron, having had some more experience since the shellacking by Margarito, he's probably made some progress. But he's not an elite fighter by any means. That shouldn't really matter here. Matthysse is tough, but he's going to be a non-moving target. And 18 of his 27 fights have gone two rounds or less, so aside from the fight with Paul Williams, he's much more used to sprints than endurance heats. This is designed as a vehicle for Cintron. And where it took a while for Williams to get him out of there, Cintron will find this opponent very much to his liking, and given his style and power, it won't take him as long.
JAY'S PLAY
Cintron by KO, TKO or DQ -210 **
ARTURO GATTI VS. ALFONSO GOMEZ
Welterweights
THE BODOG LINE
Arturo Gatti -210
Alfonso Gomez +170
Over 9.5 rds. -270
Under 9.5 rds. +210
Arturo Gatti by KO, TKO, or DQ -- 7/2
Arturo Gatti by Decison -- 5/6 (-120)
Alfonso Gomez by KO, TKO, or DQ -- 4/1
Alfonso Gomez by Decision -- 17/5 (+340)
Draw -- 13/1
Arturo Gatti is on his last legs. Everyone can pretty much sense that. But he's a pro fighter, and he's going to fight for as long as they let him.
Some people I've talked to think this might be the fight where the wheels finally come completely off. Not so fast.
I'm going to give the matchmaker some respect here.
When the July 14 date for Gatti was being discussed, there were other opponents for him to fight, namely Paul Malignaggi, Paul Spadafora and Lovemore N'Dou. But this is the guy the promoters had really handpicked, because they considered him "safe." Whether Gomez is that safe or not is a question that will be answered in the ring, but since he is not in possession of a lot of knockout power (only seven KO's in 16 wins), I'm figuring he's not taking Gatti out. That's a "safe" assumption. Gomez is coming down in weight, which means that there is the possibility he'll be weakened a bit from it, but more likely, that he's going to be a naturally stronger man.
Gomez brings some cache to the table, because of his background on "The Contender." But Gomez is still a couple of steps down from Carlos Baldomir, the last guy to fight and beat Gatti a year ago. Gatti has something bigger up next with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., then there are even bigger things down the line with any of the aforementioned opponents or Miguel Cotto. The game isn't over for Gatti just yet. And Gomez does not have enough to end it.
JAY'S PLAY:
Gatti by decision -120 **
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