Dougie’s Mega-Packed Weekend Mail Bag

By Doug Fischer

Read on for fans’ skepticism of Mosley-Mayorga, criticism of Roy Jones and Chris

Arreola, enthusiasm for Paul Williams, and because a disgruntled European boxing

freak demanded it, my uninformed analysis on Juan Carlos Gomez-Vladimir Virchis,

Firat Arslan-Guillermo Jones, and Denis Inkin-Fulgencio Zuniga. All this, plus

fantasy fight picks, in this week’s FFMB. Enjoy!

IS MOSLEY-MAYORGA SADISTIC?

Heya Dougie,

Great info from the Monday Mailbag on De La Hoya, Mayweather, Pacquiao, Marquez and even Sharmba Mitchell’s fighting weight back when they were 16 years old.  I think that’s good comparison for those who love to dwell on Pacquiao’s pro debut at 106 when he was 16, especially considering Sharmba has about the same height/reach as Pacquiao and he eventually became a regular at 147 (albeit small in comparison to Paul Williams). 

If people get all worked up about mismatches, what about this Saturday’s Mosley-Mayorga matchup where Mosley is as high as a 9 to 1 favorite?  With Mosley almost certain to get a win over the “career reviver” Mayorga, I hear that Margarito and Mosley are keen on meeting up with each other.  It seems to me that at this stage of his career, Mosley shouldn’t be taking the beating that Margarito would be giving out.  What do you think?  I’d probably make Mosley a 5 to 1 underdog if they were to meet up.

I hope I snag one of those 5 Pacquiao-De La Hoya tickets that will be available to the public this Wednesday.

Appreciate the great work as always. – JL, San Diego

Well, De La Hoya-Pacquiao is officially sold out. Did you get a ticket?

Is tomorrow night’s main event a mismatch? Probably, but I wouldn’t tab Mosley a 9-to-1 favorite. I think 4-to-1 or 3-to-1 is more realistic. The X-factor in this match is Mosley’s age (37), plus the 15 years and 50 pro bouts he’s got under his belt. Mayorga is no spring chicken at 35, either, and he’s taken his share of beatings, but you never know when a fighter is going to get “old”. So far Mosley has shown signs of slowing down a bit, but he hasn’t shown his age. He still moves and fights as well (and as hard) as most 30-year-old boxers. The fact that he’s well preserved and a better technician and athlete is why I think he’s a safe bet to win the fight, but I don’t think it will be easy. Mayorga appears to be in better shape and spirits for this bout than he was for De La Hoya and Vargas, and perhaps his unorthodox style allows him to land some right hand bombs on Mosley. We’ll see. I don’t think the fans at the Home Depot Center are going to witness a blowout for either fighter.

I definitely think Antonio Margarito is a more physically grueling bout for Mosley than Mayorga will be because of the Mexican mauler’s relative youth (30), style (pressure and volume punching) and size, but it’s not a total mismatch. Look at their fights with Cotto. Mosley may have won more rounds vs. the Puerto Rican than Margarito did. Mosley was able to do things against Cotto that Margarito wasn’t (out-box him) and Margarito was able to do things that the older, smaller man wasn’t (knock Cotto the f__k out). Mosley has athleticism, technique and versatility that Margarito doesn’t possess. Margarito has size, strength and activity that Mosley doesn’t possess. These two Southern California warriors match up well in many ways.

Mosley didn’t look like a fighter who was ready for the rocking chair in his fights with Luis Collazo and Cotto last year. Let’s see how he looks against Mayorga tomorrow night. If he’s sharp and he’s able to handle his biz, don’t count him out vs. Margarito. Mosley literally grew up fighting rugged hombres like the TJ Twista. He might have a few surprises for Margarito and cynical fight fans.

I’m glad you appreciated my analysis on Pacquiao and other well-known fighters’ weights when they were 16. You just don’t get that kind of research with those “other” mailbags. LOL! (Probably because those other writers have lives and better things to do than look up how much a fighter weighed when he was a prepubescent teen!)

P-WILL 

What's happening Doug? Big props have to go out to The Punisher Paul Williams tonight after his one round destruction of Andy Kolle. I was worried about this fight and was just praying that he came in prepared and not taking this guy for granted. Well, I'm pleased that he didn't. Fighters aren't taking enough stay busy fights like this one. I know that when they get in a good spot like Paul is they usually don't want to risk the big money fights but all the greats from 50 years ago fought all the time. There was no such thing as fighting twice a year. Paul has brass balls taking this fight considering I think the first Quintana fight was considered to be a stepping stone and he got outboxed. Now who can Paul beat up in early 2009??? Other than Joshua Clottey, I don't think any other fighter at Welter would want a piece of him right now. How about 154? Vernon Forrest, Verno Phillips, Daniel Santos and the winner of Dzindziruk and Julio

would be all good options. All of those guys are good fighters and would be competitive but Paul would end up taking them out. There's no point in him jumping up to Middleweight. There's nothing there right now. Winky, Pavlik, Abraham or John Duddy. He better stay away from Abraham and Pavlik until he takes out a bonafide Junior Middleweight and Middleweight. Whichever way he goes I'm going to be following him cuz he's almost a throwback in the sense that he's willing to take chances. – Justin

I was impressed with P-Will’s speed, technique, power and poise last night. I’m glad he took short money in exchange for much-needed activity and exposure and I’m happy that he looked so strong and steady at 160 pounds. If things don’t work out for him at welterweight, perhaps he can emerge as the “name” fighter at middleweight after Pavlik and Abraham vacate the division for higher weight classes. I know it was just Andy Kolle that  Williams blasted, but the manner in which he did it makes me believe that the Ghost and the King are the only 160 pounders (aside from maybe Winky) that I would heavily favor to beat him in a middleweight matchup.

PAUL THE PUNISHER

Hey Dougie, 

I have to say early on in his career against tough opposition Paul would out work them but not blitz them out of the park and that is what I am seeing from him lately. I just have to ask where the hell did he get this power from? There is a difference between destroying under talented stepping stones and it's quite another to blitz Quintana in one round and now this durable guy from a higher weight class. With these last performances and the knowledge that he already has a victory over the TJ Tornado I would give him the nod in a rematch. Also you put in the fact that he sets the rematch at 154 he isnt losing anything by trying to starve down to 147. Paul is going to be a three weight class champ at the very least in my opinion. Hell, with his height he could easily go up to light-heavy by the end of his career and be a 6 division champ, but that rematch has to be made by March of next year. If he doesn't get the rematch by that time get the 154 pound champ in an HBO championship fight and then go after the middle weight crown. 

Who needs the Tornado anyway! If I am Paul I don't beg off of anyone right now! With De la Hoya all but extinct and Mosely close to his last hurrah, Paul is the most promising talent from the US right now. He's only 27 and he doesn't have many brutal fights on his resume, and only one loss and he's never been knocked out. Also being from Atlanta he can bring boxing to new venues in the south. I say even though the Margarito rematch is in my top three fights to see A.S.A.P., if I was Williams I wouldn't beg for him or take anything less than a 50/50 split. Let the Margarito camp go after the money and lose momentum all they want, and while they are doing that Paul should become a 2 to three division champ. Who would have the credibility at that point? You're goddamn right! – Trevor Rotan, San Jose, CA

If Margarito takes on and beats the winner of Mosley-Mayorga in early ’09 and then bests Cotto in a rematch sometime next June, I don’t think he will lose any momentum or money. For the Margarito-Williams rematch to be a truly big event, it MUST take place late next year and Williams MUST stay active and winning against credible opposition.

With the form he’s showed in last night’s fight and vs. Quintana in their rematch, I think it’s safe to say that he will continue to win impressively.

I think he’s hitting his opponents much harder now because he’s catching them at the end of his punches instead of smothering himself the way he used to. His technique has improved. 

I’m glad to see you’re this excited about a fighter. Williams is certainly worthy of fan attention. If he were to fight Margarito at 154 pounds (or at middleweight), I’d make him a solid favorite. I also agree that he should target 154-pound title holders between now and the sought-after rematch with the TJT. (And don’t fool yourself with the “Who needs the Tornado?” talk. He’s more popular among Mexican fight fans and has more recognition among casual observers than ever.)

BIRDS CHIRPING

I liked the birds chirping outside your garage for the taping of TNR this week, LOL. Keep up the great coverage. – AE

No matter how many times our editor/director Brian Harty yelled “Quiet on the set!” those damn birds just kept on chirpin’. We’re delivering some mighty fine production value, huh?

Hey, at least the content is good – or not, according to this next guy.

TNR IS SLIPPING

Hey guys,

There's a HUGE German boxing card on Saturday and you guys didn't even mention it on The Next Round.   Isn't the Next Round for die hard fans who pay money???  Yet not even a mention of these fights: 

Juan Carlos Gomez-Vladimir Virchis  

Firat Arslan-Guillermo Jones

Denis Inkin-Fulgencio Zuniga 

TNR is slipping big time. Take care. – Boxing Freak

Yeah, I guess if you’re a hardcore fan of the European fight scene, we’re pretty lame. We don’t answer German emails in our mail bag (and I don’t think we’ve ever done David Hasselhoff and Kit as our Dynamic Duo).

Seriously, I have nothing to do with the subject matter of the TNR show. It’s Steve Kim’s baby. He’s Conan O’Brian (giant head and all); I’m a less chubby and much tanner Andy Richter.

I think there are two reasons the HUGE German show you mentioned did not make this week’s TNR:

1)It was a busy week of boxing right here in our own backyard (Mosley-Mayorga/Berto-Forbes, the Williams/Arreola card, etc.) and we try to keep the show under 35 minutes. 

2)We really don’t know enough about Virchis, Arslan and Inkin to provide any sort of competent analysis on their fights. We know their opponents – Gomez and Jones are slick and crafty vets, while Zuniga is as tough as they come – but we’ve only seen one or two DVDs or brief YouTube clips on the European “A-sides” and they were in against second-tier opposition.

So what can we say about the matchups?

I’ll give it a whirl if it will cheer you up, but I really have no idea who’s going to win these fights or why.

Virchis has good size, a decent foundation, and a varied arsenal. He was developed on solid opposition and appears relaxed in the ring, although sometimes he keeps his hands down around his waist too much. Gomez can give him trouble with his stiff southpaw jab, but he Cuban vet has to be in prime shape. My guess is that he’ll be sharp and crafty enough to make this very close on the scorecards, but I wonder if he can hurt Virchis, who will edge him out with better activity.

Arslan may have trouble with the upper-body movement and counter-punching of Jones in the early going, but his tight defense and superior physical strength will begin to tell by the middle rounds and allow him dominate down the stretch. Arslan by unanimous decision or late stoppage.

If Inkin remembers to put boxing first, he should outpoint the ultra-tough Zuniga. He will find the Colombian ridiculously easy to nail with clean power shots, but if he’s not careful he could open himself up for Zuniga’s heavy handed return fire or punch himself out and allow the slugger to surge late in the bout. I think Inkin has too much skill and athleticism for Zuniga to deal with. Inkin by decision.  (And if any of the winners has a real shot at making noise on the world stage, I think it’s the 30-year-old Germany based Russian super middleweight. The other guys, Virchis and Arslan, are getting long in the tooth).

JONES IS SLIPPIN'

I just watched your interview with Roy Jones from the presser last week.

What the f is he talking about?

Man, his thoughts are all over the place.  He's not slurring, but he's pretty damn scattered.

I know Steve disagrees, but I think Calzaghe is going to crush this old man.

I bet on Lacy, Kessler, and Hopkins.  I'm through picking against Calzaghe. This should be an easy fight for him. – JP

I favor Calzaghe in this matchup, but I’m beginning to doubt that it will be easy. Jones (as you can tell) appears to be genuinely excited about this fight. A motivated, focused and healthy Jones is dangerous, particularly early. I think his speed and somewhat unpredictable style will throw Calzaghe off in the early rounds, but if the Welsh Wizard can keep smart pressure on Jones and be his usual busy self during the lulls in the Jones offense, I think he can take over the bout by the late rounds.

Jones has always been scattered during interviews, particularly when he’s happy or excited. Sometimes his thoughts move faster than his lips can speak them, but that tells me his mind is sharp. The impression I left with after interviewing both Jones and Calzaghe last week was that they are intelligent men.

ARREOLA’S WEIGHT & D-SALCIDO

Dougie,

Probably too late for the FFMB but...damn Dougie I could sure get used to watching boxing on Thursday nights.  Williams fight hasn't started yet, but Arreola comes in at 258 and a half?  Isn't Steve Kim's "Arrerola over/under" set at 235?  He looked pretty damn chubby out there.  Doesn't he have a team or advisor to stay on him about these things (I doubt Haymon is in charge of that)? 

Don't get me wrong though, I really like the guy as a fighter and as a person (got to meet him in Vegas before Floyd/Baldy -- real nice dude, appreciates his fans, a la all the fighters I've met).  The extra weight obviously didn't affect his power.

Also, wanted to let you know that, on bodog, Dominic Salcido opened at +300 (where I got him), but just two days after you hollered "UPSET ALERT" on TNR this week, Salcido is now +180.  You single-handedly swung the line Dougie. LOL.

Keep doin what you do. – Joe from Philly (now in Vegas)

Actually, that was Steve who yelled out “Upset alert!” on this week’s TNR, but I’m happy to take the credit (especially if he wins). I like both Salcido and Escobedo, so I’m just hoping for an entertaining fight.

I agree that Arreola is at his best when fighting between 230 and 235, but he always seems to take care of biz when he’s over 240. He doesn’t have the same speed and activity, but his combinations and body work are still there, and as you noted, he cracks just as hard (if not harder) when he’s heavy. He’s a rolly polly who will roll your ass in the ring.

Since his breakout fight vs. Bolo Wills (on the Baldomir-Mayweather undercard), Arreola has weighed over 240 for Thomas Hayes and Cliff Couser, and over 250 for Garcia last night. I think he knew that he wasn’t facing Joe Frasier, Mike Tyson and Oscar Bonavena with that trio, so maybe he didn’t push himself as hard in training, or maybe he just didn’t diet for those bouts. I think if he lands a high-profile fight with still dangerous David Tua or David Haye or top-10 contender, he’ll leave Riverside for camp up in Big Bear (as he did for Wills) and he’ll get his weight down to at least the mid-230s.

TATTOO TWINS

Damn, Arreola and Garcia sure do look alike with the shaved heads and the tats. Wait till we see Cotto/Lujan, LOL. – Wilson

From a distance Cotto and Sebastian Lujan will look very much alike. The similarity in their build is uncanny. But once you get a close look at the two combatants, Lujan’s cauliflower ear will give him away.

Actually, I think Lujan is the perfect comeback opponent for Cotto. The Argentine is strong, steady but unspectacular; the perfect measuring stick for how well Cotto has recovered from Margarito’s assault.

FANTASY FIGHTS

Hey Doug how is it going this week?  Ok let’s get to some great match ups that never took place but should have!!!

Kostya Tsyzu vs Floyd Mayweather: my pick Mayweather close or split decision

Eric Morales vs Naseem Hamed: my pick Morales late stoppage

Juan Manuel Marquez vs Eric Morales: my pick Marquez close or split decision

Joe Calzaghe vs Darius Michelzewski:  my pick Calzaghe unan decision

Aaron Pryor vs Thomas Hearns (pro): my pick Hearns mid to late stoppage

Aaron Pryor vs Ray Leonard: my pick Aaron Pryor split decision

Meldrick Taylor vs Hector Camacho: my pick Taylor decision

Floyd Mayweather vs Shane Mosely (lightweight): my pick Mosely by close or split

decision

Ricky Hatton vs Miguel Cotto (jr welter):  my pick Cotto late stoppage or

decision

Corey Spinks vs Vernon Forest (welter): my pick Spinks boring split decision

Well that’s it for part one of fantasy fight weekly.  So Doug can I get you perspective on these match ups and maybe some insight on why these fights never happened!! Thanks. – Dre Nice

Often in boxing the business is put before the sport and the best fights, the logical matchups, don’t happen. I think that’s the reason most of these bouts didn’t happen when they could have or should have.

Anyway, I respect your picks but I disagree with almost all of them.

Morales was a favorite of mine, but I think his warrior mentality would have cost him vs. The Prince and Naz would have caught him with a monster punch and got him out of there by the middle rounds of what would have been a one-sided drubbing by El Terrible in the early going.

Had they met at 126 pounds, I think JMM would have out-boxed and counter-punched the hell out of El Terrible in a close but clear-cut unanimous decision.

At 175 pounds (D-Mich would have had to cut a leg off to make 168), I think the prime version of Michalczewski (1997) would have been too big and too busy for Calzaghe to hold off or out-box. I like the Polish Tiger by unanimous decision.

I agree that in the pro ranks, the Hitman would have grounded the much smaller Hawk by the middle rounds of a once-sided contest.

At 147 pounds, with Leonard in his prime, I think Sugar Ray alternates boxing with toe-to-toe exchanges and puts Pryor away by the late rounds of a classic confrontation.

I think the 140-pound version of Camacho Sr. out-slicks the ever-game and frenetic prime version of Taylor in spots and just plain stinks the joint out for much of the bout to win an unpopular majority or split decision.

I like 135-pound version of Mosley by close but unanimous decision over the lightweight version of Mayweather.

With both 140 pounders in their primes (2005) I think Cotto would have had to survive some shaky moments early in the bout before his counter punching and return body attack compensated for Ricky’s superior hand and foot speed and overwhelmed the game Englishman by the late rounds.

I also think Spinks would out-slick and out-maneuver the technically sound but methodical and flat-footed Forrest over 12 boring rounds.