By Charles Jay

 

THE BODOG LINE

David Diaz  -135

Erik Morales  +105

 

Over 9.5 rds.  -325

Under 9.5 rds.  +250

 

David Diaz by KO, TKO or DQ -- 5/2

David Diaz by Decision -- 31/10

Erik Morales by KO, TKO or DQ -- 21/5

Erik Morales by Decision -- 3/2

Draw -- 18/1

(Odds are subject to change)

 

Check it out at Bodog -- http://www.bodog.com/welcome/1768535-E343/sports-betting/boxing.jsp 

I think I remember having David Diaz on my radio show in Miami once. I can't be absolutely sure, because it was so damn long ago. The point is, that's how long it's taken this guy to get his career to a place where he can be in a real meaningful fight. On Saturday night he'll have that fight against Erik Morales. For all the time that has passed, though, the timing for this fight might not be too bad.

 

As we know by now, Morales, who has been a champion at the junior featherweight, featherweight and junior lightweight levels, was no great shakes as a lightweight in his only bout above 130 pounds - the decision defeat to Zahir Raheem in September of 2005. When he steps in the ring against Diaz, it will be for only the third time in almost two years.

 

I saw a press release where it stated Morales was going to "make history" with this fight, as he was attempting to become the first Mexican to win a title in four weight classes. Well, four titles used to mean something. I recall that in about the 90th year of gloved combat, Alexis Arguello was trying to be the first fighter to do it against Aaron Pryor and it was a very big deal. He failed, and the aura of invincibility associated with that barrier grew. Now, just 25 years later, we're practically regionalizing that accomplishment.

 

If Morales is REALLY going to make history, it will be for winning a fourth title for the first time in his own personal history. That's about the extent of the significance. And come to think of it, how significant or important can something be if he gets the shot with no wins in the division for which the belt is being bestowed and just one win in five fights over a period of three years?

 

As for Diaz, here's a guy who, after his stint in the '96 Olympics, hung around the pro fight game for almost ten years while managing to, for the most part, avoid substantial competition before receiving his world championship opportunity. Well, with the exception of spoiler Emmanuel Augustus, he at least avoided it in fights he was able to win. Diaz fought decently against Kendall Holt, even putting the former amateur star down, before succumbing in eight, and boxed a draw with then-undefeated Ramazan Palyani. Holt went on to do something with his career, beating Mike Arnaoutis recently for the WBO junior welterweight title. Palyani, a long-time amateur standout, was last seen losing a fight for the coveted Pennsylvania state title to Ray Narh, who himself will be fighting in a baseball stadium tonight in Erie, Pa. for my friend Mike Acri (There Mike, I got the plug in).

 

OK, if you're still following our story, Diaz's day in the sun was against Jose Armando Santa Cruz, a fighter of somewhat limited credentials, and was cut, frustrated and hopelessly behind on the scorecards before pulling a rabbit out of a hat and scoring the 10th-round TKO win. He is now an "interim" WBC champion, the meaning of which is still unclear to me.

 

I know I'm painting kind of an ugly picture here. But that's actually what you have to do sometimes when you're handicapping a fight. Sometimes you're thinking about as many reasons why a guy CAN'T win as you are reasons that he CAN.

 

But what makes this fight intriguing is that it is competitive. You can at the top of the story that the odds are pretty tight, and rightly so. The factors pointing us away from both guys are what tends to even this thing out.

 

What's also interesting here is that even though Morales is the guy who has been in all the wars and all the world title fights (21 in all, and that's not even counting the trio against Manny Pacquiao, all for one of those "international" or "intercontinental" deals), Diaz, who is untested by comparison, is the older man. Of course we know that in terms of wear and tear, he's not nearly as old, so that may become something of an equalizer.

 

I'm going to focus in on four reasons I like Diaz:

 

1) I don't know if Morales really has anything left. It was disheartening to see the performance against Manny Pacquiao in their rubber match. At the end, it looked like a guy who knew he was making a nice payday, and that it just wasn't worth getting hurt anymore on his way out.

 

2) Sometimes a guy can only go so far up the weight chain. Morales was probably stretching things a bit at 130 pounds, and I have yet to see evidence that he's a formidable force at 135.

 

3) While Diaz has not been tested as much as Morales, the flip side is that he does not have nearly as much wear and tear on him. The tread on Morales' tires has really worn down.

 

4) Diaz may not be the slickest fighter in the world, but he is very persistent, and will not quit. If Morales doesn't want to be there 200%, he's going to find himself wilting from having to overextend himself three minutes of every round.

JAY'S PLAYS:

 

Diaz to win  -135

Diaz by KO, TKO or DQ   +250

 

Bet boxing at Bodog -- http://www.bodog.com/welcome/1768535-E343/sports-betting/boxing.jsp