By Umar ben-Ivan Lee

This weekend boxing fans will tune into HBO to watch two fights that are being called “tune-up bouts” by most in boxing. The common line of thinking  is that Erik Morales (48-2) will make easy work of Zahir Raheem (26-1) and Manny Pacquiao (39-3-2) will blow-out Hector Velazquez (42-10-2) which will set-up a Morales-Pacquiao rematch.

This is definitely what HBO would like to see, as it is a marquee pay-per-view event if the rematch happens, and it is something most fight fans would like to see as their first bout was a classic. However what HBO executives and fight fans want to see sometimes doesn’t come to fruition.

 

Winky Wright was supposed to be a speed bump on the way to a Trinidad-Hopkins rematch and Humberto Soto was a fill in journeyman in the  eyes of the public before putting on a tremendous performance in defeating Rocky Juarez.

Upon further examination things are not as simple as they seem. Since coming to the Untied States the Filipino superstar Manny Pacquiao has built-up quite a following with his straight-forward style and his knockout punch. With Freddie Roach in his corner Pacquiao has one of the best trainers in boxing but over his last two US fights he has shown little of the pugilist education Roach has given him. In his fight with Juan Manuel Marquez Pacquiao started out strong and put the rugged Mexican on the canvas three times in the first round, but from rounds 2-12 Pacquiao was simply outclassed by the more rounded boxer.

Erik Morales took the lesson from Marquez and learned that if you stay away from the left hand of Pacquiao then he is basically relegated to a b-level opponent. In response to this criticism before the Morales fight the Pacquiao team claimed that Roach had helped Pacquiao develop a right hand that would be known as “Manila Ice”.  If his right-hand was Ice then Morales came with “Tijuana Salt” during their first bout because we once again saw Pacquiao rely almost exclusively on the chance that he would land a big left and knock Morales out and his right was completely absent in any meaningful way.

So the question is this; if Pacquiao comes out in the first round and tries to blow Velazquez out and he cannot knock him out within the first couple of rounds, or if he cannot hurt him with the left hand, will Pacquiao be able to outbox Velazquez for the rest of the bout? If the left hand can be neutralized then what is left of the Pacquiao attack? In his last eleven fights Velazquez is 9-1-1 with five knockouts and while he may not be of a superstar caliber he has shown against opponents like Guty Espadas that he is game and comes to fight.

The last time fight fans probably saw the former US Olympian Zahir Raheem was in his loss to Rocky Juarez on HBO. If one recalls this fight took place in Houston, TX, the hometown of Juarez, and referee Robert Gonzalez appeared to be the president of the Rocky Juarez fan club. The fight was close but sloppy and I wouldn’t make too many judgments on Raheem based on that performance.

Raheem is a slick and skilled boxer and is a product of the Philly gym culture where he grew-up and while in Oklahoma and Georgia since turning pro he has shown a sincere dedication to the sport and it is unlikely that he will not come prepared in this bout which will make or break his career. If Raheem loses there will be no second chances and he knows that he will have to box Morales all night for a win and hope that the judges will respect his effort.

For his part Morales will have to try and bring the fight to Raheem, and when he does he will have the crowd and the HBO broadcasters in his corner, and to win this bout he may very well have to turn it into a brawl.

Other Notes:

Word is that Zab Judah will be fighting in late September against Carlos Baldomir and that Daniel Santos, Luis Perez and St. Louis prospects Devon Alexander and Danny Williams will be on a St. Louis show also in late September….David Diaz told me that he is “completely ready for a fight with Miguel Cotto” contrary to reports on another boxing website. So if Diaz is ready, why the little-known Ricardo Torres for Cotto? Rumor has it that Cotto has problems in sparring with southpaws.

Umar ben-Ivan Lee may be contacted at keepslugging@hotmail.com