by Cliff Rold

The third fight with Leo Santa Cruz hasn’t come. Neither has a showdown with Oscar Valdez or Gary Russell Jr. Former unified Jr. featherweight and singular featherweight titlist Carl Frampton has instead stayed active and now gets a crack at a second belt at 126 lbs. with the perceived biggest names in the class still over the horizon.

Activity is at least something. This will be Frampton’s third fight in 2018. For comparison sake, that is as many fights as Santa Cruz, Russell, and Valdez will have, combined, this year. Valdez suffered a broken jaw in a win over Scott Quigg so there is a reason there.

In general, considering the talent in the featherweight class, that’s a pretty sad state of affairs. Featherweight has the potential to be as hot as any division in boxing but if it’s top fighters spend more time talking about the future rather than engaging in the ring, it will remain a series of hypotheticals.

Frampton-Warrington might not be the most exciting option globally but it will play to a hot crowd in Manchester and has the advantage over all hypothetical fights of actually occurring (Saturday, ESPN+, 3 PM EST).

Can Warrington, coming off his biggest career win for the IBF belt over Lee Selby, force his way into the elite at featherweight? Or does Frampton start 2019 as not only the most active big name but also someone with a title to bargain with?

Let’s get into it.

Stats and Stakes

Carl Frampton

Age: 31

Title: None (holds WBO interim featherweight title)

Previous Titles: IBF Jr. featherweight (2014-16, 3 defenses); WBA super bantamweight (2016); WBA featherweight (2016-17)

Height: 5’5

Weight: 125 ¾ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Belfast, Northern Ireland

Record: 26-1, 15 KO?

Press Rankings: #2 (TBRB, ESPN, Boxing Monthly, BoxRec), #3 (Ring)

Record in Major Title Fights: 5-1, 1 KO (7-1, 2 KO including interim title fights)

Last Five Opponents: 151-8-3 (.941)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: Steve Molitor TKO6; Kiko Martinez TKO9, UD12; Hugo Cazares KO2; Scott Quigg SD12; Leo Santa Cruz MD12, L12; Nonito Donaire UD12

Vs.

Josh Warrington

Age: 27

Title: IBF Featherweight (2018-Present, 1stAttempted Defense)

Previous Titles: None

Height: 5’7 

Weight: 124 ¾ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Leeds, Yorkshire, United Kingdom

Record: 27-0, 6 KO

Press Rankings: #4 (TBRB, Boxing Monthly), #5 (ESPN), #6 (Ring, BoxRec,)

Record in Major Title Fights: 1-0

Last Five Opponents: 141-15-5 (.891)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: Kiko Martinez MD12; Lee Selby SD12

The Case for Frampton: Frampton is a crafty boxer who sometimes can fight to the level of opposition. If he treats Warrington like a threat, we’ll see some of what makes him good. The Irishman has good feet and patience in picking his spots. He works well off the jab and can mitigate some of the height and length edge of Warrington by getting underneath him. Frampton is a skilled counter puncher at short range and also effective at making fighters come to him. He throws the straighter, sharper shots; Frampton landing inside the sometimes wider right hand of Warrington could frustrate the younger titlist and allow him to rack up rounds.

The Case for Warrington: To successfully defend his title, the Leeds native would be well served to force a pace that makes Frampton sloppy. Warrington is a capable boxer at range but, as was the case with Selby, he can make even more opportunities off the front foot. When he presses, Warrington lets his hands go well and he’s quick. He has a good right to the body and turns his left hook over well, if sometimes wide. Warrington also keeps a high guard so if he can catch Frampton’s shots and respond right away he can keep the more experienced man from settling into a rhythm. Volume is likely to be needed because Warrington doesn’t bring the sort of imminent knockout threat likely to concern Frampton from blow to blow.

The Pick: Warrington is a little fresher, he’s taller, and he’ll be hungry. Belts are plenty; chances to beat established names are few. Warrington’s willingness to attack, his quickness, and his jab should give Frampton fits in spots. Still, it feels like there is a slight difference in the level of fighter here. Frampton is a couple rounds away from still being undefeated; his two close fights with Leo Santa Cruz both had fair outcomes but either man could have done something a little different in just a few frames to change the outcomes. The veteran has a bit more pop and versatility as a counter puncher and it should be enough to get by with a competitive victory.

Additional Picks

Dillian Whyte TKO Derek Chisora

Cristofer Rosales Dec. Charlie Edwards

Jermell Charlo KO Tony Harrison

Jermall Charlo Dec Matt Korobov

Rold Picks 2018: 58-21

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com