By Jake Donovan

Leave it to the judges turn a close but clear fight into a matter of controversy that launched an investigation, and thus spawned a rematch.

So goes the fate for Arthur Abraham and Paul Smith, who collide Saturday evening in Berlin, Germany. The bout comes five months after their first meet, when Abraham was awarded a decision scored much wider than the action in the ring suggested.

Prior to the end of the 12th and final round, the biggest surprise of the night was that Smith put up a shockingly competitive fight.  

Most observers figured the fight to be little more than a cash-out opportunity for the traveling Brit, who turned 31 shortly after the fight. Smith delivered arguably the most convincing performance of his career through 10 rounds, before allowing Abraham to surge ahead late in the fight to secure a victory.

The consensus seemed to be that the late rally by the defending super middleweight titlist was enough to pull out the win, or at least level up the scorecards. It turned out that he could’ve stayed still for the final six minutes and still won the fight, as the wide scores suggested. 

With that, we arrive to fight night Saturday evening in Berlin, Germany.

Smith (35-4, 20KOs) was never more than a fringe contender heading into last year’s title fight with Abraham. His best wins have come at the domestic, falling miserably short when stepping up against the likes of then-unbeaten prospects George Groves and James ‘Chunky’ DeGale, suffering stoppage losses against the pair in the span of less than a year.

New life was breathed into his career following his brave showing versus Abraham, enough to restore hope among his UK faithful. Thousands of fans have made the trek from England to Germany in support of Smith as he aims for a second chance at making a lasting impression on the judges. 

Abraham (41-4, 28KOs) certainly knows a thing or two about being written off. Once an unbeaten middleweight titlist and the greatest threat to the lineal throne, his career tailed off dramatically after his thrilling last second knockout of Jermain Taylor. 

The Oct. ’09 clash kicked off the long awaited Showtime Super Six World Boxing Classic, but subsequent bouts nearly spelled the end of his career. Abraham suffered his first loss five months later, when he was outboxed and ultimately disqualified against Andre Dirrell. Far more convincing losses followed, as he was thoroughly outfought by Carl Froch and Andre Ward, the tournaments eventual finalists with Ward winning the whole ball of wax.

Abraham sought to recover, including a 12-round win over Robert Stieglitz to claim a super middleweight belt in Aug. ’12. Reality set in, or so fans thought, when he suffered a cuts stoppage after three rounds of action in their rematch seven months later. 

It was his last loss to date, having won five straight including a career-resurrecting split decision win over Stieglitz in their rubber match last March. 

Saturday’s bout will mark the third defense of Abraham’s second stint as a super middleweight titlist. A win will lead to a long-awaited clash with Felix Sturm, a bout that will do big business in Germany. 

A loss… well, who knows where Abraham will go from there given his wild career. But it will sure be fun for Smith, who promises the fight of a lifetime in his second straight title shot.

Read on to see how the staff at Boxingscene.com believes the action will play out. 
 
BOXINGSCENE.COM STAFF PREDICTIONS: ARTHUR ABRAHAM-PAUL SMITH II
 
Ryan Burton (Abraham UD): “This time around Abraham wins in more convincing fashion.”

Terence Dooley (DRAW): “When Smith was handed the opportunity to challenge Abraham last year, many fans claimed that the “Real Gone Kid” didn’t deserve the shot and was hopelessly out-gunned. On the night, though, Smith pushed Abraham hard before dropping what looked to be a close, maybe split decision, only for the judges to produce cards that seemed far too wide, especially the 109-119 score. The wide margins did Smith a favour as he was met with a wave of sympathy. The WBO investigated the scoring before deciding that the 32-year-old deserved a second crack of the whip. Abraham played his part by offering and then agreeing to a rematch—although the WBO left him little choice in the matter—and both men have vowed to be at their best for the return. Abraham has not stopped anyone since December 2012; Smith has only been stopped by James DeGale and George Groves, and at the point when both fighters were on the rise, so a distance fight looks inevitable, which puts everything in the hands of the judges. You would hope they get it right, but, going with the history of these types of bouts, they are more likely to produce either a win for Abraham or a draw.  My money is on the draw.”

Jake Donovan (Abraham UD): “I thought Abraham won the first fight with little controversy other than one crappy card, perhaps the other two off by a round or so. It’s odd for a rematch to be ordered for bad judging, rather than simply punishing the judges if that was the case. There is nothing predictable about Abraham’s career, but I expect a highly motivated performance in the rematch, especially with a lucrative Felix Sturm showdown looming.” 

Lyle Fitzsimmons (Abraham UD): “Let's face it, Smith had a painfully light resume before getting the initial Abraham match, and he gets a second as a consolation prize for a credible, albeit losing effort in the initial go-round. But unless the champ has slipped badly since they last met, he’s about to be 0-for-2.”
    
Steve Kim (Abraham Dec.): “it's a fight that will look a lot like their first one, and again, just can't see Smith getting the nod.”

John MacDonald (Abraham UD): “In the first fight, the right man won but he scores were too wide. Smith will provide a good account of himself once more but again fall just short.”
 
Takahiro Onaga (Abraham KO7): “Abraham sets the record straight and stops Smith in the 7th round with Smith giving a very good account of himself prior to being stopped.”

Cliff Rold (Abraham Dec.): “Thought Abraham won the first and don't see a much different fight this time.  Lopsided scores didn't mean the wrong winner.”

Reynaldo Sanchez (Smith UD): “I think Smith earned a draw in the first fight. I know the best days of Abraham are away now, Smith showed that it he's capable of beat the King, this time in my opinion Smith will defeat the King.” 

Alexey Sukachev (Abraham UD): “Smith will do everything for the win but his chance has been blown away in the first match-up, which was won by Arthur a bit more handily than one would think. This time this margin will be more definitive.”

Totals (10): 
Arthur Abraham – 8
Paul Smith – 1
Draw - 1

Jake Donovan is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene.com, as well as a member of Transnational Boxing Ratings Board and the Boxing Writers Association of America. Twitter: @JakeNDaBox